The New York Liberty traveled northeast to the Connecticut Sun a month ago as short favorites, and New York used a dominant fourth quarter to cover that spread in a win. It was Connecticut’s first loss of the season, and it has fallen off a bit since then, but these two remain atop the WNBA standings.
That adds drama to this Wednesday morning tip, but these free WNBA picks will look beyond the standings and trust the better team in our Liberty vs. Sun predictions before tip at 11 a.m. ET on July 10.
Liberty vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Liberty -2 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Liberty laid an egg Saturday. Upsets happen in sports, we all know this. That is, after all, why we call it gambling. But New York never should have lost to Indiana. Not covering the 10.5-point spread would have been one thing, but losing by five points was inexcusable.
Breanna Stewart channeled too much of her WNBA Finals elimination game shooting, not matching her 3-of-17 close to last October, but her 0-of-5 from deep still knocked the Liberty 3-point shooting down to 10-of-42 (24%). Combine that with grabbing only 31 rebounds, compared to the Fever’s 41 boards, and the top team in the WNBA hardly stood a chance.
Give credit to Caitlin Clark for forcing those issues, of course, but also recognize that New York knows it botched a game on Saturday.
That is not enough reason to make the Liberty only 2-point favorites against the Connecticut Sun. Consider New York was favored by 2.5 on June 8 at Connecticut, when the Sun were 9-0 outright. Since then, the Liberty have the No. 1 net rating in the WNBA, +9.3, while the Sun are at No. 5, +5.0.
For further context, realize going into that first matchup, Connecticut led the league in net rating at +14.3, with New York just behind at +13.5. These two teams have changed trajectories since their first meeting, yet this spread is tighter than that June number was.
It shouldn’t be.
Liberty vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -2
DeWanna Bonner Under 17.5 points
Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 rebounds
DeWanna Bonner spiked in the last week, scoring 24 and 23 points. The first of those was against the best defense in the WNBA, so it warranted notice, but the Lynx lost three out of four after they won the Commissioner’s Cup, a longer hangover than may have been expected but a rather understandable one from a $20,000 evening.
The Liberty defense should be up for the challenge of slowing Bonner, particularly given Bonner managed only 16 points against New York a month ago.
One of the reasons to doubt the Sun in the long run is that they struggle to rebound consistently. Of players in their rotation, only Alyssa Thomas grabs more than 12.2% of available rebounds. Both Stewart (15.0%) and Jonquel Jones (16.6%) do so for the Liberty, and that should play toward the latter’s favor in this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Sun odds
Liberty vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: New York -2.5 | Connecticut +2.5
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Connecticut +115
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Liberty vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as even shorter favorites on Monday evening, -1.5, before touching -2.5 for portions of Tuesday though remaining rather settled at -2.
- Look to the recent games from each of these teams against Minnesota to reaffirm that this spread is too short. The Liberty were 5.5-point home favorites against the Lynx on July 2, while the Sun were 3.5-point road underdogs on July 4. If trusting the maximum reasonable homecourt adjustments, that would make New York four points better than Connecticut these days, and then another homecourt adjustment would justify this -2 spread, but all of those are charitable adjustments, particularly given this is an 11 a.m. game.
- The total opened at 157.5 at the first sportsbook to reach the market but quickly reset to 156.5.
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Liberty vs Sun trend
Connecticut is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | WWOR, NBC Sports Boston |
Liberty vs Sun latest injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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