Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Vegas Scoring Rises With Mercury

The Las Vegas Aces look to put the finishing touches on a dominant regular season as they visit the last-place Phoenix Mercury tonight — and they’re -2,000 favorites in the latest WNBA odds.  

Led by MVP odds favorite A’Ja Wilson, the Aces have shrugged off a few August wobbles and used a ruthless fourth quarter to blow out the Seattle Storm 103-77 on Saturday for a second straight win.

Beyond the return of Brittney Griner, this has been a forgettable season for the Mercury, who are rock bottom in the standings; Tuesday’s 100-77 thumping against the Washington Mystics was their ninth loss in a row.

Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Mercury for a closer look at this September 8 matchup.

Aces vs Mercury best odds

Aces vs Mercury picks and predictions

The Aces have been such a potent offensive team this season that their late August mini-slump was enough to trigger a double-take. Las Vegas scored just 62 points against the Mystics on August 26 and had fallen short of its league-leading points per game average (92.6) in three straight games before the bounce-back outing against Seattle.

But that 103-point avalanche in the win over the Storm featured all the trademark shot-making — and now the visitors have had the benefit of a five-day break. Wilson led the way with 30 points that night and four other Aces finished in double-digits. Las Vegas shot 47% from the field despite finishing 10-for-30 on triples, and I see Becky Hammon’s team delivering another lights-out performance here.

The visitors still have a little work to do to hold off the New York Liberty for the No. 1 seed — and, while Hammon would surely love to give her starters some extra rest if this turns into a blowout, I don’t expect the Aces to take their foot off the gas. 

Of course, another unstoppable regular season performance would also add to Wilson’s MVP credentials in what has become a too-close-to-call race with New York’s Breanna Stewart.

The Aces have averaged 98.5 points in their two games against the Mercury this season, and Phoenix’s defense was shredded for 100 points in its last contest. I’m grabbing these odds for Las Vegas to post a big total tonight.

My best bet: Aces team total Over 91.5 (-120 at bet365)

Aces vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

It’s very difficult to envision anything other than a Las Vegas victory here. The visitors enter with a 7-3 mark in their past 10 games, and they’re facing a Mercury team that’s in a miserable rut and could again be without veteran guard Diana Taurasi.

With the Aces repeatedly overwhelming opponents this year, the spreads for their games have continued to skyrocket, and tonight brings an 18-point line. That’s a huge number, especially with the visitors likely to have one eye on the upcoming postseason, but somewhat understandable given that the Mercury are 14-24-0 ATS this year.

Las Vegas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games and hasn’t covered the spread in any of its last four road games. But this matchup is as inviting as it gets, with Phoenix trudging to the end of a dismal season and going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 contests against fellow Western Conference teams.

The Over is typically worth a long look when the Aces are involved, but the Mercury’s offensive woes are reason enough to pause there. Phoenix hasn’t reached the 80-point mark in any of its past nine contests and sits in last place in points per game (76.5).

Despite the Under being 5-1 in Las Vegas’ last six outings after an ATS win, I’ve made the case for the Aces to hit their stride again offensively, and plenty of the trends point to the Over, which has hit in each of Phoenix’s last four games and in four of the past five meetings between these teams.

Aces vs Mercury betting trend to know

This Las Vegas offense has feasted against the league’s weaker opponents, and the Over is 8-1 in the Aces’ last nine games against a team with a losing SU record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mercury.

Aces vs Mercury game info

Aces vs Mercury key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Questionable), Sophie Cunningham G (Questionable), Shey Peddy G (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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