Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Sun Can't Hack Jackie

The Connecticut Sun spotted the defending WNBA champs an early 19-point lead when they hosted the Las Vegas Aces earlier this week. Not a recipe for winning basketball.

The Sun, who battled back but still lost 90-84, are aiming for a stronger start when these teams do it all again inside Mohegan Sun Arena tonight.

The early WNBA odds have Las Vegas as a five-point road favorite, which is right around the closing spread for Tuesday’s contest.

I size up the point spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash, and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Sun on June 8.

Aces vs Sun best odds

Aces vs Sun picks and predictions

On a loaded Las Vegas Aces roster, fifth-year guard Jackie Young has emerged as an MVP contender.

Young is averaging just under 22 points per game through seven contests — a significant uptick from her scoring average of 15.9 points last season. Young is shooting better than 59% from the field and has been the most consistent member of the Aces attack.

She scored 22 points on 7-for-13 shooting in Tuesday’s win over the Connecticut Sun, picking up eight of those tallies at the free-throw line to go Over her point prop of 20.5. That gave Young her fifth 20-plus performance of the season.

Today’s scoring prop for Young is actually a tick lower than Tuesday’s total at 19.5 (Over -115), and my forecast calls for 20.5 points for the 6-foot guard, with some models as high as 21.5 points.

Young’s size and aggressive approach sees her bullying her way inside for plenty of points in the paint and drawing contact, which has translated into points from the charity stripe. The Sun have trouble matching up with bigger guards like Young due to a much smaller backcourt, with starters Tiffany Hayes (5-foot-10) and Natisha Hiedeman (5-foot-8) racking up a collective 10 personal fouls in Tuesday's loss.

Young isn't bothered by home/away splits and enters this second game in Connecticut a collective 21 of 38 from the floor (55.2%) on the Aces’ current road trip.

Some sportsbooks have Young’s scoring prop at 20.5 (Over -113), but you can get her at 19.5 (Over -115) at bet365 with today’s WNBA odds still rolling out at sportsbooks.

My best bet: Jackie Young Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Aces vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The WNBA odds were slow rolling on Thursday morning with only one game on the board. Circa Sports in Las Vegas showed a spread of Aces -6, while some offshore operators opened lower at Vegas -4.5. As more shops rolled out, the consensus opener was Vegas -5, with some places at -5.5.

I’m working on my own WNBA power ratings, and my number comes out on the shorter end closer to Aces -3. These continue to get fine-tuned with every game, and the toughest team to measure has been Las Vegas, which continues to draw massive spreads with a loaded roster.

And while the Aces have started the season an unblemished 7-0 SU, their betting returns have been mixed. Depending on where you grade Tuesday’s game, the Aces could be 3-3-1 ATS to start the 2023 schedule, with a 1-3-1 ATS count on the road.

Tuesday’s game in Connecticut was a telling finish, with the Aces jumping out to a near 20-point edge due to sloppy play from the Sun. Turnover troubles flipped into easy buckets for Las Vegas, who collected 17 points off turnovers — 13 of those coming in the first half.

Connecticut is a much stronger team and showed it with a surge in the second half, knocking down 8 of 12 3-point attempts while shooting close to 49% from the field. Las Vegas has a bad habit of defensive lapses, and its advanced defensive rating has spiked to 100 during this current road trip.

The Sun didn’t get a great game from their standout players either. Veteran guard Tiffany Hayes struggled to get going due to foul trouble, scoring just six points in 22 minutes. Forward DeWanna Bonner played less than 24 minutes and was on the court for only one minute in the fourth quarter, finishing 2 of 9 with only five points. I have to wonder if she’s 100%, but haven’t seen any injury news.

The total for Thursday’s rematch hit the board at 169.5 points at online books, while others opened it a touch lower at 168.5. It briefly dropped to 167.5 at some online shops before climbing up to as high as 170 points at some offshores.

Tuesday’s number closed at 168.5, and the final score blew past the Over/Under mark with 174 combined points. The game was leaning Under in the first half with the Sun struggling to score, but the teams combined for 95 points in the second half.

The Sun do play the slowest tempo in the WNBA, ranked 12th in pace (95.63). Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ high-octane attack sits No. 2 in pace rating. The Aces' offensive output on Tuesday looked much better than it really was due to those early turnovers translating into easy looks for the Aces.

Aces head coach Becky Hammon told the media that despite her team scoring 90 points, they didn’t play especially well offensively — most notably shooting just 4-for-15 from beyond the arc. It’s the defensive let-ups that have led to a 4-3 O/U count for Vegas.

Connecticut, on the other hand, is 4-4 O/U, and has scored 80 or more points in four straight games. The Sun boast an offensive rating of 104 in that stretch.

Aces vs Sun betting trend to know

The Connecticut Sun are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sun.

Aces vs Sun game info

Aces vs Sun key injuries

Aces: R. Williams G (Out).
Sun: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic