The Phoenix Mercury return home with work to do after dropping the first two games of the WNBA Finals, and they’ll need a spirited fightback on Wednesday to derail a Las Vegas Aces team that’s moving into top gear.
Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson sparked the Aces’ runaway Game 2 victory, combining for 60 points, and my favorite WNBA player props for Game 3 include wagers on both of Las Vegas’ big guns.
Read on for my must-have prop picks ahead of the October 8 action.
Aces vs Mercury props
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Young Over 16.5 points |
-120 |
| Wilson Over 35.5 points + rebounds |
-120 |
 Sabally Over 5.5 rebounds |
-130 |
Jackie Young Over 16.5 points
Jackie Young delivered an electric performance on Sunday to lead the Las Vegas Aces to a 2-0 series lead, pouring in 32 points on 12-for-20 shooting for her second outing of the week with 30+ points.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise, really. Young is a proven postseason performer, and she’s finished with at least 18 points in seven of her 10 outings in these playoffs, so I’ll gladly jump on the Over again for Game 3 when the prop line sits at 16.5.
Las Vegas has plenty of capable scorers – in the starting five and off the bench – but Young has emerged as the most consistent bucket-getter to take pressure off A'ja Wilson’s shoulders.
After averaging 12.4 FGA per game in the regular season, Young has shown a more assertive mentality with a combined 53 shots in her last three outings, and that’s surely a welcome sight for Becky Hammon.
Young is also a perfect 27-for-27 at the free-throw line across her past five contests, and I expect her to be a thorn in Phoenix’s side again on Wednesday night.
A'ja Wilson Over 35.5 points + rebounds
Game 2 swung in Las Vegas’ favor during a sequence where Wilson just decided to take over the contest, and her stat line of 28 points and 14 rebounds in 32 minutes tells its own story.
The Aces will need the MVP to stay hot on the road if they’re going to slam the door on a Mercury comeback, and that signals another do-it-all effort from Wilson, who’s gone past this combo prop Over in three of her last four contests.
Despite a few tough outings, she’s shot better than 50% from the field in six of her 10 games during this postseason run, and her athleticism seemed to swallow up the Phoenix frontcourt at the weekend.
While I expect Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Natasha Mack to make some adjustments for Wednesday’s matchup, Wilson can get most of the way to this Over in points alone – she’s had 28+ points five times in this postseason.
Combined with her nightly potential for double-digit rebounds, there’s some nice cushion with this pick.
Satou Sabally Over 5.5 rebounds
The numbers look decent for Satou Sabally through the first two games in these Finals, but the Phoenix Mercury will be asking her for even more as the series heads to PHX Arena.
Sabally was one of the bright sparks for Nate Tibbetts’ squad in Sunday’s disappointing loss. She ended up with 22 points, nine rebounds and a -3 plus/minus in the 91-78 setback, and I’m wagering on her being a big factor in Game 3, too.
That starts with her impact on the glass, where Phoenix was outrebounded 43-34 last time out. Sabally has grabbed 6+ boards in seven of her past nine contests, and there’s going to be urgency for the Mercury to control the paint in such a high-stakes spot.
Sabally logged 5.9 RPG during the regular season, but that number sits at 7.2 RPG in the 2025 playoffs. As long as she can avoid the foul trouble that plagued her in Game 1, I see the German international nailing this Over and easing the rebounding burden on some of the Mercury veterans.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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