Eleven WNBA teams just felt a cold shiver run down their spine. The New York Liberty are figuring it out.
After an up-and-down start to the season, New York’s new-look lineup has exploded for outputs of 102 and 106 points in back-to-back wins heading into Tuesday’s home stand against the Atlanta Dream.
The Dream fell victim to that collecting cohesiveness from the Liberty’s stars, getting blasted 106-83 by New York at home last Friday. New York was a six-point road favorite, in that meeting and is now laying 11 points at home tonight. However, N.Y. could be down standout guard Sabrina Ionescu, who is questionable with a sore hamstring.
Atlanta comes to Brooklyn at a bad time and is in the midst of a daunting stretch of schedule in which it’s played — and lost against — the top three teams in the league: Las Vegas, Connecticut and New York. This trip to the Barclays Center is also the team’s first road game since May 23.
I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this Big Apple battle and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Liberty on June 13.
Dream vs Liberty best odds
Dream vs Liberty picks and predictions
When measuring the impact of New York’s new “Big 3”, forward Jonquel Jones hasn’t had the splashiest debut for the Liberty.
The former league MVP had been battling a nagging injury in her left foot for the first month of the season, which limited her floor time and output. According to head coach Sandy Brondello, Jones is 100% recovered, and we’re seeing that with an uptick in minutes the past three games.
Jones has logged 21, 21, and a season-high 27 minutes over the past three contests after playing less than 20 minutes in each of the first five games of 2023. And while she’s still finding her fit among the stars in Brooklyn, her role as a rebounder is pretty cut-and-dried.
Jones has collected rebounding totals of six, eight, and eight the last three games — including six defensive and two offensive boards against the Atlanta Dream last Friday.
Jones’ rebounding prop for tonight is parked at 6.5 O/U, with the Over priced between -113 and EVEN money, as it doesn’t appear oddsmakers are accounting for her health and increased playing time.
Jones owns an average of just five rebounds per game so far this season, with her injury dipping into her minutes and work on the glass. However, the 6-foot-6 forward averages more than eight rebounds per game for her storied pro career, and faces a smaller ATL frontcourt that runs 6-foot-4 and shorter.
WNBA player projections have Jones pegged for 7.6 rebounds against Atlanta with a higher ceiling, considering the pace of this game.
The Liberty have been pushing the tempo the past two games and the Dream play the second quickest pace in the league, which means plenty of field goal attempts — and rebounding chances. They allow 73.1 FGAs per outing (second most) and shoot just under 70 shots for themselves (fourth most).
Atlanta enters Tuesday ranked No. 8 in rebound rate, and was outworked 37-34 on the glass by New York last week, including giving up nine offensive boards. New York is coming off a rebounding war with the Wings on the weekend with coach Brondello emphasizing the importance of cleaning the glass, with Jones grabbing eight boards in that victory against one of the best rebounding clubs in the league.
Given game script, player models, and Jones’ uptick in playing time, there's solid +EV at Over 6.5 EVEN on J.J.’s rebound total tonight.
My best bet: Jonquel Jones Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100 at bet365)
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Dream vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
WNBA odds hit the board late Monday, with New York opening as 11-point home chalk following two high-powered wins over Atlanta and Dallas. That spread has since ticked up to -11.5 at some online markets.
The status of Sabrina Ionescu will impact this line, as she's questionable with a tender hamstring. While she dropped 37 points on the Dream last Friday and followed that with 22 points in the win against the Wings, her impact on the odds isn't as great as last season with veteran point guard Courtney Vandersloot on the team and a bounty of scoring options for the Liberty.
My adjusted WNBA power ratings spit out a projected spread of -11.12 in favor of the home side, so there's nothing glaring pulling me to one side or the other of this line.
New York opened as a 7.5-point favorite for Friday’s game in Atlanta, and action on the host trimmed that spread to a closing number of Liberty -6. Up until that game, New York’s revamped roster with Breanna Stewart, Jones, and Vandersloot joining Ionescu hadn’t lived up the preseason hype.
The Liberty were 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS with that star-studded cast in their opening six games, with their most impressive victory coming against Connecticut. They owned a net rating of just +5.2 and faced an average spread bigger than -10 in that span.
New York had shown flashes of promise in those six games but couldn’t put it all together on both ends of the floor for a full 40 minutes. However, it all started to click against Atlanta last week, and that momentum carried over into a big win over Dallas on the weekend.
The Liberty are shooting better than 50% from the floor in those two outings with an assist-to-FG ratio of 74%. Their advanced offensive rating is a sky-high 123.8, backed behind an up-tempo attack rolling out a 100.8 pace rating.
As for the Dream, this current stretch of calendar is a nightmare. Atlanta is running the gauntlet of WNBA powers the past two weeks, facing New York twice along with Connecticut and Las Vegas. It’s gone 1-2 ATS in those matchups and sit 3-4 ATS on the season, with just two victories in those first seven games.
The Dream’s defense has really taking a pounding during this daunting stretch, but it’s not just league superpowers getting the most of Atlanta. They’ve gotten rolled by lesser teams like Indiana and sit No. 9 in defensive rating on the year.
This losing skid has been compounded by an injury to starting guard Aari McDonald, which is a huge hit to an Atlanta backcourt already playing without fellow veteran guard Danielle Robinson, who was lost for the first half of the season with a knee injury.
The Dream also play at a quicker pace on offense, ranked out No. 2 in the WNBA (100.71), but that speed has come with a price. Atlanta coughes up 16.6 turnovers per game so far (second most), with opponents flipping those into more than 19 points against. Last Friday, New York’s overshadowed defense pressured 17 turnovers out of Atlanta for 21 points off those errors.
Tuesday’s total opened 169.5 points and has climbed to as high as 171 points at some online shops. Friday’s game in Atlanta opened with an Over/Under of 163.5 points and jumped to 166.5 before tipoffs.
The 106-83 final score crushed that number and was the third straight Over result for New York, which is 5-3 O/U on the season. The Dream have also topped the total in each of their last three showings and enter Tuesday 5-2 O/U.
Dream vs Liberty betting trend to know
The Atlanta Dream are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Liberty.
Dream vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS Sports |
Dream vs Liberty key injuries
Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out), Danielle Robinson G (Out)
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu G (Questionable), Han Xu C (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
