Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, June 5.
This should be a banger between a former Top-10 welterweight in Ponzinibbio and a young up-and-coming fighter in Baeza.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight, with UFC betting lines installing Baez as a slim -128 favorite while Ponzinibbio comes back at +104.
Here are our best free Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night action on Saturday, June 5 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Ponzinibbio vs Baeza fight odds
| Method of Victory | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | +108 | -126 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +250 | +190 |
| Win by Points | +340 | +420 |
| Win by Submission | +2,400 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 4, 2021.
Ponzinibbio vs Baeza betting preview
Santiago "Gentle Boa" Ponzinibbio had been one of the hottest names in the promotion, riding a seven-fight winning streak and jumping up to No. 7 in the welterweight rankings after knocking out Neil Magny in 2018. However, a staph infection almost forced him to retire and inactivity eventually dropped him out of the rankings.
After 26 months away from the octagon, the Argentinian returned in February and was knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang. In his prime, Ponzinibbio was a pressure fighter with athleticism and knockout power.
Miguel “Caramel Thunder” Baeza is fresh off a second-round submission over Takashi Soto last November. That earned Baeza his second straight Performance of the Night Bonus after knocking out UFC veteran Matt Brown earlier in the year.
The 28-year-old is now 9-0 in his career, including 4-0 in the octagon. Baeza is a dangerous striker with solid defense, explosiveness, and power in his hands. Eight of his 10 career wins have come by way of stoppage.
Ponzinibbio vs Baeza tale of the tape
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | Miguel Baeza | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 73 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 28-4 (15 KO) | Record | 10-0 (7 KO) |
Ponzinibbio vs Baeza UFC prediction and betting pick
PREDICTION: Moneyline Miguel Baeza (-126) - Less than three years ago Ponzinibbio was one of the most promising fighters in the division but multiple staph infections almost forced him to retire. When he came back in February he got starched in the first round by Jingliang, who at the time was unranked and had taken the bout on short notice.
Now the 34-year-old faces a young and surging fighter in Baeza, who has racked up impressive finishes in the UFC and can get it done wherever the fight goes. Expect another impressive victory from Caramel Thunder on Saturday.
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