History will be made at the White House when UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria puts his title on the line against Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC Freedom 250.
UFC Freedom 250 odds have Topuria as a -525 favorite, while Gaethje looks to spoil the champion's momentum as a +380 underdog. My Alex Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje predictions expect the favorite to pull out the win on Sunday, June 14.
Topuria vs Gaethje fight prediction: Topuria to win (-525)
Gaethje is as tough as a rusty nail. He brutalized Paddy Pimblett, but it wasn't too long ago that he was picked apart violently by Max Holloway.
Topuria presents an even more dangerous stylistic challenge. Gaethje may be able to lure lesser opponents into a brawl, but Topuria is too refined and too patient to fall into that trap.
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Topuria vs Gaethje best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-115)
Gaethje's toughness is both shield and sword: he doesn't get outclassed in his defeats; he gets stopped.
If a smaller, faded version of Holloway was able to blast him out and stop him, the more refined and dangerous Topuria can follow that game plan with greater success.
Topuria may have to exchange some early fire, but his shots will land with more authority and break him down. I don't believe Topuria will get his first-round stoppage as he's boasting.
COVERS INTEL: All of Justin Gaethje's losses in the UFC have come by stoppage.Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Topuria | Gaethje |
| To win outright | -525 | +380 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -230 | +550 |
| To win by decision | +790 | +1800 |
| To win by submission | +600 | +3500 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -115 |
Under 1.5 -115 |
Odds as of 6-11.
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Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje tale of the tape
| Topuria | Gaethje | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 17-0 | Record | 27-5 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 20 |
| 8 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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