The highly anticipated UFC Freedom 250 is finally here, and the card kicks off with a featherweight tilt between No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes and rising star Steve Garcia.
Lopes enters the event as the -150 favorite, while Garcia hits back at +120 in our UFC Freedom 250 odds.
I’ll break down why I’m expecting fireworks and an early stoppage in my Lopes vs. Garcia predictions for Sunday, June 14.
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia fight prediction: Garcia moneyline (+120)
This is a big step up in competition for Steve Garcia on paper, who is ranked just No. 9 in the featherweight division despite picking up seven straight wins.
It’s also a step down for No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes, who is 1-2 over his last three bouts, with both losses coming in championship fights against Alexander Volkanovski.
However, this matchup will probably be closer than their rankings suggest.
Garcia has emerged as one of the best knockout artists in the division with six KOs in his last seven fights, while boasting an impressive Expected Round Percentage of 70% and a significant strike differential of +3.27 per minute. By comparison, Lopes comes in at just 45% and -0.73 in those respective categories.
Lopes is clearly the more experienced fighter, but he’s shown a willingness to sit in the pocket and trade, and that’s exactly the type of fight that suits Garcia’s game.
Garcia is playable at +120, but if the line creeps closer to +140 by fight night, you’re getting great value on a very live dog.
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Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia best bet: Fight to not go the distance (-240)
Garcia hits hard and often, landing 5.39 significant strikes per minute. Meanwhile, Lopes has shown that he’s more than willing to let loose and trade, as evidenced by his bloody back-and-forth KO win over Jean Silva at Noche UFC last year.
The Brazilian has never been knocked out in the UFC, but he’s been through three brutal fights over the past year, and that might finally catch up to him.
Lopes also has finishing upside of his own, especially if he can take Garcia into deep waters late in the fight.
COVERS INTEL: Garcia averages 2.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes, compared to just 0.63 for Lopes.Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Lopes | Garcia |
| To win outright | -150 | +120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +245 | +260 |
| To win by decision | +390 | +450 |
| To win by submission | +425 | +2250 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -135 |
Under 1.5 +105 |
Odds as of 6-13.
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Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia tale of the tape
| Lopes | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 72.5 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 27-8 | Record | 19-5 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 15 |
| 12 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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