UFC Fight Night Vegas 118 features an intriguing lightweight clash as “The Smile Killer” Fares Ziam squares off with dangerous Australian fighter Tom “Big Train” Nolan in the night's featured bout on Saturday.
Ziam is currently riding an impressive six-fight win streak and looks poised to enter the top-15 rankings soon if he can continue his momentum with another signature victory.
Looking to steal the spotlight and put his own name into the mix among the division's top names is Nolan, who has won four of his five fights with the UFC after winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2023.
Current UFC odds have Ziam as a -325 favorite on the betting line, and I’m backing him as well in my Ziam vs. Nolan predictions and free betting picks for June 6.
Ziam vs Nolan fight prediction: Ziam moneyline (-325)
After starting his UFC career just 2-2 after his first four fights, Fares Ziam has turned the corner in a big way, leading to his current six-fight win streak.
The French Muay Thai champion has spent a significant amount of time working on his ground game, which, as a result, has now become one of his biggest weapons.
Tom Nolan, meanwhile, has enjoyed success so far in his MMA career, thanks to his massive size for the weight class. Standing six-foot-three at 155 pounds, he’s been able to rely on his length and proportions to beat his opponents to the punch.
That advantage will run out on Saturday when he meets Ziam, who, despite standing two inches shorter, actually holds the edge in the reach department. I expect Nolan to come out aggressive at the beginning, but ultimately, he’ll realize pretty quickly that Ziam is operating on a different level.
Ziam vs Nolan best bet: Ziam to win by TKO (+275)
Since rounding out his grappling and takedown defense over the past couple of years, Fares Ziam has begun to return to his finishing ways, no longer afraid to overextend himself and give opponents opportunities to take him down.
As a result, he’s scored knockout wins in two of his last three fights, including in his most recent outing when he took out Nazim Sadykhov inside of two rounds.
This is bad news for Nolan, who has proven to be vulnerable in the durability department. His lone career defeat came in his UFC debut when he was knocked out by unheralded fighter Nikolas Motta in just over a minute, and he was also seriously rocked versus a hapless Victor Martinez in the next outing.
Nolan also has one amateur loss on his record, and, you guessed it, it came from his getting knocked out.
This is a step up in competition for the Australian fighter, and one I’m not convinced he’s ready for yet. I’m backing Ziam to continue his progression and hand Nolan another trip to the hospital.
The moneyline at -325 is currently set a bit deep, so I wouldn’t recommend playing it much further if it continues to grow, but the +275 for Ziam to win by TKO still provides a ton of value, and I’ll be pursuing that number as long as it stays between +225 and where it sits currently.
COVERS INTEL: Fares Ziam has never been knocked down or knocked out in 22 professional MMA fights.Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Ziam | Nolan |
| To win outright | -320 | +235 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +275 | +900 |
| To win by decision | +150 | +440 |
| To win by submission | +390 | +2400 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -220 |
Under 1.5 +165 |
Odds as of 6-6.
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Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan tale of the tape
| Ziam | Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 26 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 18-4 | Record | 10-1 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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