Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos headlines Saturday's UFC Fight Night card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Rosas looks to continue his rise through the bantamweight division, but he faces his toughest test yet against the streaking Barcelos, who enters on a five-fight winning streak. My Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos predictions break down the matchup, with Rosas favored at 59%. Check out the latest UFC odds and free picks for Saturday's bantamweight main event.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Barcelos | 41% |
| Top pick: Barcelos to win | 41% |
| Prop: Barcelos by decision | 44% |
| Combo: Barcelos + Decision | 43% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos: Barcelos (41% Probability)
The UFC has invested heavily in Rosas, but this is a major stylistic test against a veteran with excellent wrestling, BJJ, and takedown defense. The last time Rosas faced an opponent who consistently denied his grappling was Christian Rodriguez, and he lost. Barcelos is crafty, durable, considerably better on the feet, and owns the grappling credentials to avoid being overwhelmed. I’m going with the veteran to pull off the upset.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos top pick: Barcelos to win (41% Probability)
Barcelos straight up is my top pick. The market continues to pile onto Rosas, but I question how comfortably he wins when his primary weapon meets legitimate resistance. Rosas remains conservative and occasionally awkward on the feet, while Barcelos has won five straight and owns an 88% takedown-defense rate. If Barcelos can consistently force Rosas to strike with him, this matchup begins to look dramatically different from what the market is pricing.
COVERS INTEL: Barcelos owns an 88% takedown-defense rate and lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute, while Rosas lands just 1.34 per minute and has only two knockout victories.Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos prop: Barcelos to win by decision (23% Probability)
Rosas is going to wrestle from bell to bell, but Barcelos’ takedown defense and extensive grappling experience should prevent this from becoming 15 minutes of Rosas controlling him from top position. There will be stretches where they jockey for position, but Barcelos should have a pronounced advantage whenever they separate. If he can repeatedly deny Rosas’ takedowns and force him to strike, Barcelos’ superior output and cleaner combinations should carry him to a decision.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos combo
Rosas should aggressively pursue takedowns, but Barcelos is equipped to deny enough attempts, survive the grappling exchanges that do occur, and force Rosas to spend extended stretches striking. If Barcelos can keep the fight competitive on the mat, his cleaner and more diverse striking should allow him to separate himself on the scorecards.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos |
| To win outright | 59% | 41% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 12% | 17% |
| To win by decision | 27% | 23% |
| To win by submission | 22% | 6% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 49% |
No 54% |
Odds as of Sept. 25.
Barcelos is a 41% underdog, but his 17% KO/TKO probability actually exceeds Rosas’ 12%, reinforcing the striking advantage that makes him appealing at plus money. With Rosas heavily dependent on getting the fight to the mat, Barcelos’ ability to defend takedowns and win the cleaner exchanges on the feet gives the underdog a realistic path to the upset.
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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos tale of the tape
| Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Age | 39 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 67 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 12-1 | Record | 22-5 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Rosas owns a two-inch height advantage, but both fighters have an identical 67-inch reach. The remarkable difference is age, with the 21-year-old Rosas facing the 39-year-old Barcelos, who has more than twice as many professional fights. Rosas has the youth and submission upside, but Barcelos brings considerably more experience and a more diverse striking attack.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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