UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac Odds, Picks & Predictions

Marcin Tybura is facing off against Serghei Spivac in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Tybura is the No. 8 ranked heavyweight contender with Spivac one spot behind him, and with similar skillsets and resumes it's no surprise that UFC odds opened at close to a pick'em.

However, money has come in on Spivac who is now the -150 favorite with Tybura coming back at +130. Here are my best free Tybura vs. Spivac predictions and picks for Saturday, August 10.

Tybura vs Spivac prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Tybura (+130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 3.5 rounds (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

These guys fought back in 2020 with Tybura winning by unanimous decision as a +100 underdog and the odds opened at the same price for the rematch. To be fair, Spivac was 25 years old at the time and it was just his third fight in the promotion, which explains the money coming in on him now that he's in his heavyweight prime and Tybura is 38. 

Since that first clash, Spivac has gone 6-2 with four finishes while Tybura has gone 7-2 with three finishes. The similarities don't end there with both guys having been knocked out in the first round by current interim champ Tom Aspinall while starching Greg Hardy and submitting Tai Tuivasa. Not only are their resumes similar but they are also similar in terms of build, athleticism (or lack thereof), and skillset —  using a grappling-heavy approach and control to grind out wins. 

Spivac is almost a decade younger but Tybura hasn't really showed signs of slowing down and is fresh off a first-round submission against Tuivasa earlier this year. Meanwhile, Spivac is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Cyril Gane where he absorbed 109 significant strikes while landing just 11. While there's no shame in getting outstruck by an elite kickboxer in Gane, the fact that Spivac looked shell-shocked and was a punching bag for almost nine minutes is a bad look. 

Spivac tends to use a lot of trips and throws to get takedowns and that has a lower chance of success against somebody with a strong wrestling base like Tybura. Spivac hasn't faced any grapplers in recent years but when he was taken down by Aleksei Oleinick in 2021 and in that previous fight against Tybura, he struggled off his back and was unable to get up or reverse position. 

I haven't seen enough of an evolution in Spivac's game or a decline in Tybura's to expect this fight to go much different than the first. That has me leaning towards the slim underdog at +130.

Best best analysis

Both of these guys are durable and have only been finished once in their last 10 fights — with those stoppage losses coming against Aspinall who would sleep pretty much anybody in the world. 

They also don't throw with much volume or have much power on their feet. In fact, almost all of their stoppage wins in the UFC have come via ground-and-pound or by submission against opponents with no grappling ability. They'll have a much tougher time finishing each other with those methods. 

Expect plenty of clinch and wrestling exchanges which should drain time off the clock and lead to a snoozer of a main event here. Regardless of who gets the win, the Over 3.5 rounds seems like the best play.

Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac odds

Method of Victory	Tybura	Spivac
To win outright	+130	-150
To win by KO/TKO	+440	+200
To win by decision	+390	+325
To win by submission	+875	+750
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-7.

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Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac tale of the tape

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