Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling Predictions, Picks & Odds

The co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night pits former champion Aljamain Sterling against former title challenger Brian Ortega.

Sterling and Ortega are trying to stay in striking distance for a future title shot in the Featherweight division, and this will be a contest where skill overcomes grit.

UFC odds have Sterling as a -270 favorite, while Ortega is currently a +215 underdog. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling predictions for Saturday, August 23.

Ortega vs Sterling prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Sterling moneyline (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-200 at BET99)

Fight analysis

At one point, Ortega was 14-0 and positioned as a prime-time player at featherweight, ultimately earning a title shot against Max Holloway that went awry back in 2018. Holloway beat Ortega in a merciless striking display that essentially ruined him, and he has managed to hang on with some critical wins here and there, but is still trending downward. Sterling, on the other hand, looks like he still has gas in the tank and can keep up with the division’s top fighters.

We saw Sterling give grappling specialist Movsar Evloev all he could handle in his last fight, coming up short, but he presented himself as a legitimate threat to the division. The former bantamweight champion is best known for his suffocating grappling and has improved his striking considerably since moving up in weight. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.21 in return for an excellent +2.20 differential, and scores 2.51 takedowns per fight. His conditioning is unbelievable, and he consistently shoots and wrestles for position. His strong defense makes him incredibly hard to shake off once he gets into his groove.

Ortega is coming off a lopsided loss to Diego Lopes, where he could not get anything done offensively. When he was coming up, Ortega was lauded for his grappling skills, which many thought would be enough to carry him to prominence, but the Holloway fight showed how one-dimensional he is. His defense is horrendous, as he absorbs 6.59 significant strikes per minute, relying on his chin to hold him up until he can get into grappling range. His takedown game is subpar, as he relies mostly on cage control and body locks to slow the action down. As Lopes demonstrated, he is easy to prepare for and extremely hittable.

I am surprised the line is not higher for Sterling. Not only is he a former world champion, but he is also the better grappler and does not get hit by everything that comes his way. Ortega has taken too many beatings since the Holloway fight and has less in the tank than the older Sterling does at this point. Even if Ortega closes the gap and tries to grapple with Sterling, he will be outclassed in that department by the former champion. Sterling is the pick.

Best bet analysis

The beatings Ortega has taken have slowed him down, but he remains extremely resilient. Sterling has never been the kind of fighter who compromises his discipline to go for a finish, and with both fighters’ average fight times going beyond 12 minutes, it is safe to say this fight will go the distance. Sterling’s calculated strikes and cardio may wear Ortega down, but nothing dramatic is likely to happen early. The fight going over 2.5 rounds is my best bet.

Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling odds

Method of Victory	Ortega	Sterling
To win outright	+365	-550
To win by KO/TKO	+1900	+540
To win by decision	+875	-105
To win by submission	+1100	+255
Draw	+4500	+4500

Odds as of 8-22.

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Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling tale of the tape

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