Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Predictions, Picks & Odds

The biggest men in Shanghai take center stage as Sergei Pavlovich takes on Waldo Cortes-Acosta in what should be a high-level striking match on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard.

With Pavlovich trying to reframe himself as a top threat at heavyweight and Cortes-Acosta hoping to score the biggest win of his career, these two are bound to deliver the action.

UFC odds have Pavlovich as the -250 favorite, while Cortes-Acosta is currently listed as a +190 underdog.

Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta predictions for Saturday, August 23.

Pavlovich vs Cortes-Acosta prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+190 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+190 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Sergei Pavlovich’s recent form has raised questions about his long-term standing in the heavyweight division.

Once considered one of the most feared knockout artists in the UFC, back-to-back losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov have dented both his momentum and confidence. His win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik did not exorcize the demons from those defeats.

That said, Pavlovich remains one of the most dangerous heavyweights on the roster, capable of ending a fight with a single exchange.

Cortes-Acosta has been getting things done with speed, volume, and technical striking rather than sheer power. Fresh off a career-best win over Serghei Spivac, where he mostly avoided the takedowns and dominated the stand-up, Cortes-Acosta brings sharp combination punching, effective leg kicks, and steady pressure.

He lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.43, giving him a strong +2.52 striking differential, and his durability has held up well so far. This fight, however, is by far his toughest test against an opponent with Pavlovich’s explosiveness.

Pavlovich, at his best, is a whirlwind in the opening rounds. He darts in with quick, powerful combinations, landing 4.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.81 in return. Most of his UFC fights have ended in the first round, as he tends to overwhelm opponents before they can settle in.

The question here is whether he can impose that style against a fighter with Cortes-Acosta’s footwork, volume, and composure. If Pavlovich cannot find his target early, frustration could set in, and his mental liabilities may resurface, as we saw in his last two fights.

Stylistically, Cortes-Acosta has the tools to make this difficult for Pavlovich. His movement, jab, and steady work rate can blunt Pavlovich’s early rushes and gradually take control of the fight.

By managing distance and attacking with combinations, Cortes-Acosta can force Pavlovich on the defensive, and his counter-striking skills are far less threatening than when he’s walking opponents down.

While Pavlovich remains live for a finish at any moment, Cortes-Acosta’s technical discipline and volume striking give him the edge. 

Best bet analysis
The odds lean toward Pavlovich’s knockout potential, but Cortes-Acosta as the underdog offers excellent value. His boxing, movement, and pace are well-suited to frustrating a power puncher who thrives on early momentum.

Pavlovich always carries fight-ending danger, but unless he lands a clean early blow, Cortes-Acosta has the style and composure to outlast and outpoint him.

At nearly two-to-one odds, I’ll take Cortes-Acosta straight up as my best bet.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta odds

Method of Victory	Pavlovich	Cortes-Acosta
To win outright	-250	+190
To win by KO/TKO	-105	+450
To win by decision	+300	+475
To win by submission	+2400	+2900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 8-22.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta tale of the tape

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