UFC 319 Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Predictions, Picks & Odds

Bellator standout Aaron Pico is wasting no time when it comes to making a big impact with his UFC debut, and featherweight contender Lerone Murphy is ready to give him a hard welcome in an intriguing clash on the UFC 319 undercard. Murphy is stepping in on short notice to face the prodigious Pico, and the winner may likely find themselves a fight or two away from title contention.

UFC odds have Pico as the -180 favorite while the undefeated Murphy is a +140 underdog. Here are my free UFC 319: Pico vs. Murphy picks and predictions from the United Center in Chicago on Saturday, August 16.

Murphy vs Pico prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Murphy moneyline (+140 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Murphy to win by decision (+220 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Bellator transplants haven't had a lot of luck in the UFC of late. However, all eyes are on Aaron Pico, who was emerging as one of their top talents before it folded, and he hasn't shied away from taking a tough first step entering the UFC.

Originally, Pico was going to face wrestling machine Movsar Evloev in July, but Lerone Murphy is stepping in for the injured featherweight and is no less daunting a challenge.

It's a surprise that Murphy opened up as an underdog, even though he's coming in on short notice, particularly when the consensus opinion is that he's on the short list to challenge Alexander Volkanovski after working his way through the rankings.

Murphy is a sniper on the outside and is a technically solid fighter who excels at picking his offense and staying out of trouble, landing 4.53 significant strikes against 2.48 absorbed. However, he'll struggle defending takedowns with his paltry 52% takedown defense if he can't maintain his distance.

Pico started his MMA career just narrowly missing out on the 2016 U.S. National Team for wrestling and has a background in amateur boxing. While he started his pro career at 19 with middling results, he's evolved into a solid professional with strong striking instincts and good chain wrestling.

Bellator's talent pool was always shallow, so despite Pico's eye-opening performances toward the end of the promotion's life, he's facing a huge test in his UFC debut against a fighter on the cusp of title contention. Murphy is a better technical striker than Pico, and he's not coming into this fight voluntarily if the confidence isn't quite there, so Pico will need to hope Murphy gives him an opening to wrestle.

While Pico is a good fighter, it has been a journey to get to this point, and I don't see how he'll manage to beat Murphy. Murphy is an excellent defender and has the type of style that shuts people down, not to mention that he's hard to close the distance on and is always in great shape. Pico will likely try to push the pace and use his bag of tricks against Murphy on the inside, but I am having a lot of trouble seeing how he'll do that when craftier and better fighters have failed. 

Best bet analysis
For all the good things Murphy does, he is feather-fisted and doesn’t have that killer instinct to close out a fight even when he’s dominating. He’s the MMA equivalent of a points fighter in boxing, where he’ll fight to neutralize and frustrate, opting to play the long game and not take risks while sticking to a disciplined game plan based on keeping the fight on the outside.

Taking Murphy straight up is a strong pick as it is, but the best bet here is that Murphy gets it done as usual by decision.

Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico odds

Method of Victory	Murphy	Pico
To win outright	+140	-180
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+800	+425
To win by decision/technical decision	+220	+130
To win by submission	+2250	+900
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 8-14.

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Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico tale of the tape

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