Carlos Prates hopes to rebound with a win over one of the welterweight division’s toughest gatekeepers in Geoff Neal on the UFC 319 undercard. The explosive Prates will need to show marked improvement from his previous performance, and Neal is the right kind of opponent for him to recapture that lost momentum.
UFC odds have Prates as the -250 favorite over the +195 underdog Neal. Here are my best free UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates picks from the United Center in Chicago on Saturday, August 16.
Neal vs Prates prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Prates moneyline (-250 at BET99)
- My best bet: Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+125 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Carlos Prates’ UFC rise hit a wall against Ian Machado Garry, who dominated him in every statistical category. That loss may have been a wake-up call for the talented Brazilian, but it’s one he can rebound from against seasoned veteran Geoff Neal.
Prates’ appeal lies in his explosive Muay Thai strikes and finishing instincts. Sixteen of his 21 wins have come inside the distance. He throws with intent, landing 3.60 significant strikes per minute, though his -1.19 differential shows his willingness to absorb shots in return.
At 6-foot-1 with a three-inch reach edge, he’ll have the physical tools to dictate range and punish Neal in close exchanges. His 83% takedown defense should also neutralize any attempt Neal makes to change levels.
Neal is a capable, heavy-handed striker who thrives at midrange, where he can sit on his punches and inflict damage. However, he tends to falter against opponents who either control distance with precision or crash the pocket with volume. If he can’t be first to initiate or cannot set the pace of the fight, he doesn’t possess the ability to turn the fight around, despite his talents. An injury stoppage win over Rafael Dos Anjos snapped a two-fight skid, but it doesn’t underscore the fact that Neal has gone 3-4 since 2020.
Prates’ sharper technique, physical advantages, and proven takedown defense give him multiple ways to win. If he can set the pace early and avoid prolonged firefights in Neal’s wheelhouse, this matchup favors the younger, fresher fighter. I’m all in for Prates to bounce back with a win.
Best bet analysis
A loss on the way up can sharpen a fighter’s approach, and Prates should benefit from the lessons learned against Garry.
Neal isn’t an elite counter-striker and struggles to keep high-volume strikers off him, which plays into Prates’ forward pressure. Expect Prates to soften Neal up with jabs and combinations, breaking the veteran’s resolve, and eventually finding the finish when an opening presents itself.
Prates by knockout is my best bet.
Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Neal | Prates |
| To win outright | +195 | -250 |
| To win by KO/TKO/DQ | +575 | +125 |
| To win by decision/technical decision | +405 | +215 |
| To win by submission | +2250 | +2250 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 8-13.
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Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape
| Neal | Prates | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 16-6 | Record | 21-7 |
| 10 | Wins by KO | 16 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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