UFC 319 Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev Predictions, Picks & Odds

Dricus du Plessis puts his middleweight championship on the line against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 this Saturday. 

This should be a cataclysmic battle between the No. 4 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in du Plessis and Chimaev, whose rise to champion has looked inevitable. UFC odds have Chimaev installed as a -250 favorite while DDP makes his third title defense as a +190 underdog. 

Here are my best free UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev predictions for August 16 from the United Center in Chicago.

Du Plessis vs Chimaev prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Chimaev (-250 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Chimaev by KO/TKO or Submission (-130 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Dricus du Plessis enters UFC 319 on an 11-fight win streak. He won a controversial split decision against Sean Strickland to earn the belt in 2024 before submitting former champ Israel Adesanya. DDP faced Strickland in a rematch earlier this year and put that rivalry to bed with a lopsided victory. 

Khamzat Chimaev has a perfect 14-0 record in his career while going 8-0 inside the octagon. "Borz" has long been viewed as a future champ but has been held back by inactivity and illness over the last few years.

Chimaev dominates his opponents, and in his last bout, he subbed Top-5 middleweight Robert Whittaker with a brutal face crank in the opening round. Du Plessis has impressive BJJ but Chimaev has some of the best grappling in MMA history.

Borz is relentless with his pressure and takedowns, using his strength and explosiveness to overwhelm foes. He saps the energy of his opponents with his python-like grip while softening them with ground-and-pound and working submissions from a variety of positions. 

For the most part, DDP has faced fighters who haven't tested his defensive wrestling. The last guy that tried was Derek Brunson, who was able to take him down and get into good positions against him on the ground. 

Brunson's grappling isn't on the same tier as Chimaev and he isn't a submission threat, so he wasn't able to take advantage of that. If Chimaev gets those openings, he'll take full advantage and finish du Plessis.  

Best bet analysis

The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the champ, who has five-round experience along with the striking volume to impress judges. Chimaev's best chance of victory comes inside the distance, and DDP will have a tough time lasting 25 minutes against his onslaught.

Sure, Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns went the distance against him, but that was in 15-minute bouts, and Chimaev came close to subbing Usman in the first round. 

Expect Chimaev to drag this fight to the mat, where he'll be able to get into full mount or take the champ's back. Even on the feet, there's a chance Chimaev could win by KO/TKO since he's shown death-touch power against Gerald Meerschaert and Ikram Aliskerov. 

Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev odds

Method of Victory	Du Plessis	Chimaev
To win outright	+190	-250
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+525	+320
To win by decision/technical decision	+600	+500
To win by submission	+1150	+155
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 8-15.

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Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev tale of the tape

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