Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan face off in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday.
These lightweights train together at American Top Team, and this should be a competitive bout with UFC odds installing Duncan as a -160 favorite and Moicano coming back at +135.
Here are my best UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan predictions and free picks for April 4, from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas.
Moicano vs Duncan fight prediction: Moicano (+135)
Renato Moicano is on a two-fight skid after losing a decision to Beneil Dariush and getting submitted by Islam Makhachev in a short-notice title shot. Before that, he had won four straight, with three of those coming by stoppage.
Chris Duncan is 6-1 in the UFC, but many of those wins were chaotic brawls, which he almost lost. He's tough as nails, but is hittable and can be vulnerable in grappling exchanges.
Moicano is the more technical striker, with better grappling and wrestling ability. He's also faced a far higher level of competition, and his composure will allow him to capitalize on Duncan's mistakes.
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Moicano vs Duncan best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-130)
Both fighters are aggressive finishers who push the tempo from the opening bell. Four of Duncan's last five fights ended inside of two rounds, while 11 of Moicano's previous 14 bouts went Under 2.5 rounds.
Whether Duncan gets submitted or pounded out on the ground, or Moicano's chin gets cracked, somebody will get finished before the midway point of Round 3.
COVERS INTEL: Duncan says that Moicano is one of the few guys that he has trained against that he has never submitted in the gym, and he would be "very surprised" if he submitted him in this fight. Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Moicano | Duncan |
| To win outright | +135 | -160 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +170 |
| To win by decision | +510 | +390 |
| To win by submission | +365 | +850 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 +100 |
Under 2.5 -130 |
Odds as of 4-3.
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Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan tale of the tape
| Renato Moicano | Chris Duncan | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 71.5 inches |
| 20-7 | Record | 15-2 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 10 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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