Top 10-ranked UFC lightweights are set to collide on Saturday in Las Vegas when Polish powerhouse Mateusz Gamrot meets red-hot Australian contender Quinlan Salkilld in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the Meta Apex.
Current UFC odds have Salkilld as a -150 moneyline favorite based on his current form, which has seen him win 12 straight fights, including a perfect 5-0 record inside the UFC. Gamrot, meanwhile, enters this fight as a +120 underdog, but no doubt represents the toughest challenge of Salkilld’s career.
Both men have plenty of merit and a clear path to victory, but my Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld predictions and free betting picks are backing the younger Salkilld to get the job done on Aug. 8.
Who will win Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld: Salkilld moneyline (-150)
Quinlan Salkilld has looked like a legitimate threat since joining the UFC two years ago, going a perfect 5-0 inside the octagon, with four of those wins coming inside the distance.
Still only 26-years-old, the Australian-born fighter has a well-rounded game overall, but it’s his size and striking prowess that have been giving opponents the biggest trouble.
In this particular matchup, he will enjoy a massive four-inch reach advantage over Mateusz Gamrot. He will find ways to put that advantage to good use before eventually finding the killshot.
Look for either a late finish or a clean decision in favor of Salkilld.
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Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld best bet: Over 3.5 total rounds (-145)
This fight seems like the type of style clash that’s going to drag on into the later rounds.
Gamrot is a world-class wrestler, but he hasn’t always been the biggest finisher, with six of his last nine fights going to the scorecards. He relies heavily on controlling his opponents on the mat, which usually leads to him killing the clock.
Salkilld, meanwhile, has shown excellent killer instincts so far in his fight career, but will be facing a big step-up in competition on Saturday. Gamrot has been knocked down five times in the UFC, but to his credit, he has never actually been knocked out in 30 professional MMA fights.
Logic would indicate that if Salkilld is going to be the first person to stop him due to strikes, it’s going to come later in this fight after Gamrot tires and can no longer rely on his wrestling to get him out of trouble. The Over 3.5 rounds looks good to me, regardless of whichever man gets their hand raised at the end of it.
COVERS INTEL: Gamrot has been booked in a five-round fight five times in his career and has gone Over 3.5 total rounds in four of them. Salkilld has been scheduled for five rounds once in his career and went Over 3.5 rounds as well.Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Mateusz Gamrot | Quillan Salkilld |
| To win outright | +125 | -145 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +790 | +290 |
| To win by decision | +265 | +425 |
| To win by submission | +475 | +450 |
| Total rounds | Over 3.5 -145 |
Under 3.5 +115 |
Odds as of 8-8.
This is a serious step-up in competition for Salkilld, so -150 on the moneyline is about as deep as I’m willing to go on that. I would much rather just live bet him after he loses the first round and get the line closer to even or plus money before he starts to take over.
Over 3.5 total rounds at -145 is likewise set pretty accurately, but I would still be willing to play that number as low as -160 if need be.
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Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld tale of the tape
| Mateusz Gamrot | Quillan Salkilld | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 71 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 26-4 | Record | 12-1 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Gamrot is undeniably the toughest fight of Salkilld’s career, but at 35-years-old, his power wrestling and durability are starting to regress. I’m not confident he'll be able to rely on just holding down his opponent for 25 minutes. Not with a four-inch reach and two-inch height disadvantage too.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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