UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates Odds, Picks & Predictions

Neil Magny's time as a legitimate contender in UFC is winding down and books don't expect much from him against Carlos Prates. With little value to be found on Prates' ML or win by KO, we're looking at alternate markets.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 9, 2024 • 07:00 ET • 4 min read
Neil Magny UFC Fight Night
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Neil Magny faces off against Carlos Prates in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Magny has long been a gatekeeper at welterweight and he's once again taking on a fast-rising prospect. UFC odds opened with Prates as a massive -600 favorite and he's now up to -775 with Magny coming back at +600. 

I let you know how to find betting value on this bout with my best free UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates picks and predictions for November 9.

Magny vs Prates prediction and pick

Fight analysis

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates is on a 10-fight winning streak with his last nine wins coming by way of KO/TKO. That includes all four of his fights inside the octagon where he has knocked out his opponents inside the first two rounds. 

It makes sense that a vicious knockout artist entering his prime would be favored against 37-year-old Neil Magny, who was knocked out in the first round by Michael Morales just 11 weeks ago.

That said, while Magny has plenty of wear on his tires after 33 fights in the UFC, he's still extremely active and generally competitive. He has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights and he upset Mike Malott as a +275 underdog earlier this year.

Magny was beaten up in the first two rounds but weathered the storm. When Malott gassed out in the third, Magny reversed position and finished him with ground and pound. Magny has a well-rounded skillset and with a massive 80-inch reach, Prates won't have a reach advantage for the first time in his career. 

With Prates' diverse striking arsenal and advantages in speed and power, he should get the win. But this line is way too steep to consider against a still dangerous veteran like Magny. Look elsewhere for betting value. 

Best best analysis

With Prates' power and Magny's durability a question mark so soon after a knockout loss, backing Prates to win by KO/TKO makes the most sense. However, even betting on Prates to win by KO/TKO is practically unplayable at -345. 

While Magny will likely lose, he's not an easy opponent to finish early. He went the distance against Ian Garry last year before turning the tide against Malott in the third round earlier this year. He also lasted until nearly the end of the second round when he faced Shavkat Rakhmonov in 2022.

Magny will be the toughest opponent Prates has ever faced. Sure, Prates is coming off a victory against Li Jingliang who was a solid fighter in prime but Li was clearly washed after a two-year absence from the sport and coming off a spinal injury. Prates should get another knockout win here but I doubt it will come inside the first round and a half.

Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates odds

Bet99
Method of Victory Magny Prates
To win outright +500 -769
To win by KO/TKO +1,550 -345
To win by decision +1,350 +725
To win by submission +1,350 +875
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of 11-7.

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Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape

Magny   Prates
37 Age 31
6-foot-3 Height 6-foot-1
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
80 inches Reach 78 inches
29-12 (8 KO) Record 20-6 (15 KO) 

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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