Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga is scheduled for three rounds in the light heavyweight division, and is a featured attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from The Apex in Las Vegas.
Pauga is coming down from heavyweight after taking a loss, and Wright is moving up from middleweight under the same circumstances. Both hit hard and are in need of a win.
UFC odds have Pauga as a -275 favorite as he seeks his first official UFC victory. Wright is reeling after three straight losses, and is a +230 underdog for this fight.
Here are our picks and predictions for Wright vs. Pauga at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga fight odds
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jordan Wright | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +420 | -140 |
| To win by Points | +1,500 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +1,000 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 16, 2023.
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga betting preview
Jordan Wright moves up the scales in hopes of snapping his losing streak, but what he really needs is defensive awareness. After picking up a 9-0 run on the regional circuit and his first fight in the UFC, Wright has been pummeled in both victory and defeat, going 2-4 in his last six. While Wright has shown a lot of stopping power and aggression both in his strikes and his ground game, he’s the definition of a glass cannon.
“The Beverly Hills Ninja” can be deadly if his opponents aren’t ready for an early barrage. Wright lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute at 65% accuracy, and lands 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy. His average fight time is only 2:58 minutes, and all of his wins have been finishes, with seven knockouts and five submissions.
Zac Pauga spent his run on Dana White’s Contender Series as a light heavyweight fighting heavyweights, so he’s hoping a trip down the scales will result in a win. Wright is trying to see if anything will work, as he’s gone 1-4 in his last five after starting his career 11-0.
Pauga showed a lot of skill and heart, but couldn’t last long enough due to his lack of size. The former Colorado State running back succumbed to the heavy blows of Mohammed Usman last August, and has decided that there’s no better time than the present to fight guys his own size. He has that natural athleticism and conditioning one would expect from his background, and while still a bit green, he figures to be more effective at 205 pounds.
“Zac The Ripper” may be relieved that he’ll be fighting someone smaller than he is for a change. Pauga lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute with 64% accuracy while only absorbing 2.14 in return. He isn’t normally a stoppage artist, as his previous stints fighting for Cage Warriors and LFA almost always went the distance.
Pauga did get knocked out by Usman – a natural heavyweight – in his last fight, so questions about his chin linger. There won’t be a lot of debate afterwards, as Wright is going to go right to him and hope he catches him before he eats a shot of his own. This fight shouldn’t last long, and it could ultimately be decided on who lands the first clean blow.
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga tale of the tape
| Jordan Wright | Zac Pauga | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 12-4-1 (7 KO) | Record | 6-1 (2 KO) |
Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Pauga
While we want to treat fighters with the utmost respect, Wright seems better fit for a toughman contest at a local bar than the UFC. He has a terrible chin and is overly liberal with his offense, leading to him getting beaten up in a bad way. In none of his fights did he look drained or sapped of strength making the middleweight limit – all his defects were technical.
Pauga might not have a lot of time to develop, but he is making the right call to move down to light heavyweight. Despite the Usman loss, he was handling himself well against bigger men, and just has to be prepared for Wright’s wild strikes early on. Being a smaller man and getting chin checked isn’t uncommon in combat sports, and Wright’s power is a result of his unpredictability than his natural strength.
We don’t see a lot of avenues for Pauga to lose. Wright is either going to punch himself out or run right into a counter shot that sparks him out. Our bet is Pauga at -275 before it gets any higher.
Prediction: Pauga moneyline (-275 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Pauga by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1
Wright absorbs 7.54 significant strikes per minute at a woeful 32% defense rate. It will be some miracle if this fight goes the distance. Expect Pauga to find an opening, take it, and go home.
While we could take the safe route and say the fight isn’t going the distance, we’ll hedge our bets that Pauga gets it done.
Our best bet for the night is Pauga winning this fight via strikes inside the first round.
Pick: Pauga by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+130 at DraftKings)
