UFC Fight Night: Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen Odds, Picks & Predictions

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen is a middleweight clash of contenders serving as the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card. 

My Imavov vs. Allen predictions don't see much value in the dog for this bout, with UFC odds pricing Imavov as the favorite at -230 with Allen as a +175 underdog.

Imavov vs Allen prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Imavov ML (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Imavov by decision (+195 at BET99)

Fight analysis

While Brendan "All In" Allen has the longer winning streak and superior grappling, Imavov has looked impressive since his rushed loss to Sean Strickland a few fights ago. It's clear why the UFC is eager to develop him. Although Allen’s recent run has been commendable, his perceived evolution appears to have a ceiling, and the "Russian Sniper's" style represents that ceiling.

Strickland knocked Allen out in a lopsided fight in 2020, and Chris Curtis followed with another knockout a year later. While Allen did avenge that loss with a debatable split decision win last April, his struggles against technical strikers remain evident.

Imavov, a technical kickboxer with sharper technique than Curtis, is coming off a statement win over Jared Cannonier last June, knocking him out in four rounds. He also secured a majority decision win against Roman Dolidze, which many argue should have been unanimous. The definitive nature of those victories has solidified his place as a top middleweight.

The sniper doesn't shoot for takedowns often but can secure them when needed, and with a 74% takedown defense, Allen's path to victory becomes more challenging.

This is a three-round fight, and although Allen managed to secure takedowns on Curtis in their rematch, those came in later rounds when Curtis was fatigued. Imavov, being busier and faster on his feet, will likely land combinations, keep Allen at bay with leg kicks, and reset to avoid grappling exchanges where Allen could drag him down.

Based on recent performances, the Russian Sniper shows more upside and appears to be a class above All In. I'm inclined to trust his takedown defense and superior striking, which should carry him to victory and end Allen’s winning streak.

Best best analysis

Allen’s struggles against strikers haven't been fully resolved despite his recent success. Imavov is a busier striker than Curtis and has a better overall defense, which will make it hard for Allen to secure takedowns unless he becomes desperate.

Allen also lacks the firepower to outstrike Imavov, and Imavov’s mobility will allow him to avoid being worn down for takedowns.

Imavov will likely start strong and beat Allen to the punch. The three-round fight format will make it difficult for Allen to stage a late comeback, as he did against Curtis.

Allen is outmatched on the feet against a refined striker like Imavov, and he may have to play it safe to avoid a stoppage. While I give Allen credit for his toughness, and I don't doubt his ability to slow things down at times, I’m picking the Russian Sniper to win by decision.

Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen odds

Method of Victory	Imavov	Allen
To win outright	-220	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+190	+1,550
To win by decision	+195	+390
To win by submission	+900	+575
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-26.

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Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen tale of the tape

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