Fans in OKC are in for a treat when former UFC champions Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman square off in a high-stakes middleweight clash that headlines Saturday’s Fight Night card at the Paycom Center.
Current UFC odds have Du Plessis as a firm -260 favorite, with underdog Usman sitting at +195 at BET99. While I agree with the market and will be backing the South African, I believe the real value lies in the Over 3.5 total rounds.
Both men have proven their pedigree and durability many times before, and I’m favoring a competitive decision that goes the way of Dricus in my official Du Plessis vs. Usman predictions and free betting picks for July 18.
Who will win Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman: Du Plessis by decision (+170)
I think Dricus Du Plessis’ size and experience at middleweight will make the difference in the long run, but I expect this fight to be much closer than the -260 moneyline would suggest, so I’m looking for additional value elsewhere.
Usman has been finished just once since 2013, a stretch of 25 fights, and that was a late buzzer-beater with less than a minute remaining against Leon Edwards four years ago. If Dricus is going to win this fight, he’ll likely have to do it the old-fashioned way by outworking the former welterweight great and stuffing takedowns for 25 minutes.
The facts are that this is a 39-year-old Usman moving up to 185 pounds, where he’s 0-1 in the UFC, against a 32-year-old Du Plessis who is a former champion in this weight class and owns a pair of wins over current king Sean Strickland. He’ll find a way to edge this fight, but it will be via the judges’ scorecards.
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Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman best bet: Over 3.5 total rounds (-195)
Regardless of who wins this fight, it’s going to be very difficult for either man to score a finish inside the distance. Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 UFC fights, while Usman, as aforementioned, has been put away just once in the past 13 years.
Dricus has historically been the bigger finishing threat, but he’s quietly gone the distance in three of his last four fights. Meanwhile, 52% of Kamaru’s career victories have come by decision, and he has cleared 3.5 rounds in each of his last five fights.
The UFC has done an excellent job with the matchmaking here, but when you pair two durable and battle-tested veterans, you usually end up getting a chess match. That’s what I’m expecting Saturday, making Over 3.5 total rounds the best way to approach this fight.
COVERS INTEL: Dricus Du Plessis is 10-0 in the UFC when fighting someone older than him.Despite being 39 years old, Usman is still a classy operator capable of hanging with the best fighters in the sport, so taking the Du Plessis moneyline at -260 doesn’t look particularly appealing.
Du Plessis by decision at +170 looks good, and I would be willing to buy in as high as +150. However, my favorite play remains Over 3.5 total rounds, which I would be willing to take as far as -240. It doesn’t look flashy, but it’s a solid parlay piece and a safer way to cover both sides.
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman |
| To win outright | -245 | +200 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +210 | +500 |
| To win by decision | +170 | +525 |
| To win by submission | +750 | +2400 |
| Total rounds | Over 3.5 -210 |
Under 3.5 +160 |
Odds as of 7-15.
Du Plessis is a firm -260 favorite to defeat Usman, which carries an implied probability of approximately 72%. Usman returns +195 as the underdog, while Du Plessis by decision offers a far more appealing +170 payout. The Over 3.5-round market is heavily juiced at -195, reflecting the durability and five-round experience both former champions bring into the matchup.
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Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman tale of the tape
| Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 23-3 | Record | 21-4 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 11 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Du Plessis enters with the clear physical and divisional advantages, as he is seven years younger and has spent his UFC career competing at middleweight. Although both fighters own identical 76-inch reaches and nine knockout victories, Dricus has a much deeper submission resume. Usman’s experience, wrestling, and durability should keep the matchup competitive, but Du Plessis is better equipped for the physical demands of a five-round fight at 185 pounds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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