The UFC returns to Canada tonight, headlined by a welterweight clash between Gilbert Burns and Mike Malott.
Malott opened as a -600 favorite, but money has since come in on the former title challenger Burns.
Current UFC odds now list Malott at -300, with Burns coming back at +225.
Find out why I'm going against the line movement in my Burns vs. Mallott predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, April 18.
Burns vs Malott fight prediction: Malott moneyline (-300)
Mike Malott is fresh off a decision win against Kevin Holland, which improved his record to 7–1 inside the Octagon.
Meanwhile, Gilbert Burns enters on a four-fight losing streak. There's no shame in losing to welterweight contenders, but none of those defeats were close. Two of them came via brutal knockout, with the other two by lopsided decision.
Burns is almost 40 years old, and even in his prime, he didn't have great physical attributes for the division. His declining durability will be exploited by Malott, who is significantly bigger, faster, and more athletic.
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Burns vs Malott fight prediction: Malott by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (-175)
Despite facing elite grapplers, Burns is a former BJJ World Champion and has never been submitted in his career. Malott won't be able to sub Burns, but he's a good enough striker to crack his diminished chin or grind out a decision.
I'm reluctant to bet Malott on the ML at -300, especially since he gassed out and lost the last time he faced a Top-15 gatekeeper in Neil Magny. That said, getting this double-method-to-win price at -175 is worth it.
COVERS INTEL: After getting knocked out by Michael Morales last May, Gilbert Burns experienced severe concussion symptoms that lasted until late June. Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Burns | Malott |
| To win outright | +225 | -275 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +975 | -120 |
| To win by decision | +600 | +600 |
| To win by submission | +790 | +575 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -105 |
Under 2.5 -125 |
Odds as of 4-18.
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Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott tale of the tape
| Burns | Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 71 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 22-9 | Record | 13-2-1 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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