After an unbelievable event in London, the UFC returns to the United States this weekend with a heavyweight clash between Curtis Blaydes and Chris Daukaus taking place as the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on March 26.
UFC betting odds have Blaydes listed as a significant -345 favorite while Daukaus comes in as the underdog at +260.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus picks and predictions for Saturday, March 26 from the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH.
Blaydes vs Daukaus fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Blaydes vs Daukaus method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Curtis Blaydes | Chris Daukaus |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +105 | +460 |
| To win by Points | +260 | +1,600 |
| To win by Submission | +950 | +1,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Blaydes vs Daukaus picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Blaydes vs Daukaus betting preview
Curtis "Razor" Blaydes is the No. 4-ranked contender in the heavyweight division and is coming off a decision victory against Jairzinho Rozenstruik last September. That allowed him to bounce back from a brutal knockout loss to Derrick Lewis last February and improved his record to 5-1 in his last six trips to the octagon.
The 31-year-old has fought 14 times in the UFC with 10 wins, three losses, and one fight that was originally a stoppage victory and later declared "no contest" after he tested positive for marijuana. Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division and averages a whopping 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes with 43% of his significant strikes coming on the ground.
Chris Daukaus is No. 9 in the heavyweight rankings and will try to get back on track after seeing his hype train derailed in a first-round knockout loss to Lewis in December. Prior to that defeat, Daukaus had five straight wins by knockout, including four consecutive finishes since being signed by the UFC in 2020.
The 32-year-old resigned from the Philadelphia police department a few months ago to focus on MMA full time. Weighing in at 235 pounds for his bout against Lewis, Daukas is relatively small for the heavyweight division but has good movement, quick hands, and accurate boxing.
Blaydes vs Daukaus tale of the tape
| Curtis Blaydes | Chris Daukaus | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 261 lbs | Weight | 235 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 15-3 (10 KOs) | Record | 12-4 (11 KOs) |
Blaydes vs Daukaus UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Blaydes (-345)
Blaydes' biggest weakness has been power-punchers, with all three of his career losses coming against Lewis and Francis Ngannou, the two hardest hitters in the MMA game.
Daukaus has crisp hands and several impressive knockout victories on his resume but he doesn't have the one-punch power of Lewis or Ngannou. He was also exposed in his bout against Lewis and it was soon apparent that while he is much better than the heavyweights on the periphery of the Top 15, he isn't yet on the level of the best fighters in the division.
In addition, with Blaydes' four-inch reach advantage, Daukaus will have a tough time getting to the inside to do damage with his boxing. When he does enter the pocket he'll be in the range of Blaydes' relentless takedowns and he has never faced an opponent anywhere near that level of offensive wrestling.
Blaydes will be able to take this fight to the mat and with Daukaus' smaller size he'll likely be able to bully him on the ground. From there, he'll either win with stifling control or brutal ground and pound.
Best bet: Blaydes Round 4, 5, or Decision (+150)
For a heavyweight contender, Blaydes isn't the most entertaining fighter and five of his last nine wins have come by way of decision. His last two victories were particularly lackluster affairs with him using takedowns and top control to outpoint dangerous strikers in Alexander Volkov and Rozenstruik.
That makes it particularly interesting that the payoff for him to win by decision (+260) is so much better than his win by KO/TKO prop (+105).
While it does make sense that Blaydes will have more time and opportunities to get the finish in a five-round bout, we still don't see it happening in the early going. It's more likely he will drown Daukaus in the later rounds and either win by decision or late stoppage. That gives value to this play.
