UFC 317 Predictions, Picks & Odds for the Prelims

UFC 317 takes place this weekend from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and is headlined by Ilia Topuria aiming to become a two-division champion against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira.

There are several fights in addition to the main event that are too close to call, so the weekend’s best betting values might just be found in the prelims.

Here are my free UFC 317 preliminary predictions for June 28.

UFC 317 prelim picks and predictions

Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith
• Prediction: Smith ML (-2500)
• Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-275)

Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
• Prediction: Diniz ML (-350)
• Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-120)

Tracy Cortez vs. Vivian Araujo
• Prediction: Cortez ML (-220)
• Best Bet: Cortez by decision (-200)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 317 prelim odds and picks

Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith fight odds

Method of Victory	Price	Smith
To win outright	+975	-2500
To win by KO/TKO	+2500	-275
To win by decision	+1800	+550
To win by submission	+4000	+405
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

Price is, if nothing else, brave and willing to entertain even if it’s to his detriment. The always exciting veteran tends to fight with no fear — and no chin — with five of his eight losses coming by knockout.

Smith made his UFC debut showing fight-ending power against Preston Parsons last January, and even scored a vicious knockout of Christien Savoie on the Contender Series before that. 

While Price is a capable veteran and could make something happen in a firefight, those +1050 odds feel generous.

Prediction: Smith moneyline (-2500 at BET99)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-275 at BET99)

Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines fight odds

Method of Victory	Diniz	Hines
To win outright	-350	+260
To win by KO/TKO	-175	+790
To win by decision	+440	+875
To win by submission	+1900	+850
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

In terms of striking, Diniz has the potential to be one of the best technical kickboxers at heavyweight alongside Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov.

However, he is practically useless if he gets taken down to the ground, essentially making him vulnerable to an upset at any given time.

He was giving Marcin Tybura a striking lesson until Tybura took him to the ground and drowned him. Thankfully, Diniz won’t worry about that with late substitute Hines, who is as crude a striker as one could find on short notice, but with enough grappling skills to make bettors nervous. 

Hines won’t challenge him in the striking department, but this fight could turn if it gets to the ground.

Prediction: Diniz moneyline (-350 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-120 at BET99)

Tracy Cortez vs Viviane Araujo fight odds

Method of Victory	Cortez	Araujo
To win outright	-220	+170
To win by KO/TKO	+2000	+1100
To win by decision	-200	+335
To win by submission	+1200	+900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

Araujo is coming off a win over Karine Silva from last November, and Cortez has been inactive for almost a year since a July 2024 loss to Rose Namajunas, where she showed that she wasn’t quite ready for the next step.

From a talent perspective, I’m not fully convinced Cortez has shown enough to be a Top 10 contender, but she should have enough to beat Araujo. 

Cortez doesn’t have the power to stop Araujo, and she shouldn’t waste her time trying to win the fight on the ground.

Araujo is tough enough and has shown that she can still be a handful even at 38 years old, though she tends to fade as we’ve seen in recent fights. 

Prediction: Cortez moneyline (-220 at BET99)
Best Bet: Cortez by decision (-200 at BET99)

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