Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 317 this Saturday. Oliveira is the former champ, but he'll have a tough time against the No. 3-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world, who relinquished his featherweight belt to move up to 155.
My Topuria vs. Oliveira predictions expect Topuria to win by KO/TKO, and UFC odds agree he should be favored to come out on top on June 28 in Las Vegas.
Topuria vs Oliveira prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Topuria ML (-425 at BET99)
- My best bet: Topuria by KO/TKO (-175 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Charles Oliveira is an MMA legend who holds the UFC records for most finishes (20) and most Performance of the Night bonuses with 13 to his name. That said, Ilia Topuria has made a habit of destroying legends.
Topuria knocked out Alexander Volkanovski in brutal fashion last year to claim the featherweight belt and then defended his title by handing Max Holloway the first knockout loss of his career.
Moving up a division isn't easy, but Topuria has more than enough strength and power to thrive at 155, which he proved in his lone lightweight fight in 2022 when he starched Jai Herbert. Topuria has a perfect 16-0 record in his career while going 8-0 in the UFC.
Meanwhile, Oliveira is 2-2 in his last four fights. He lost to Arman Tsarukyan last year, and while he's coming off a decision win, his inability to finish a washed-up Michael Chandler is concerning.
Oliveira is an extremely dangerous grappler off his back, but foes with superior wrestling and heavy top control can hold him down. Topuria possesses strong wrestling and underrated grappling abilities, with many forgetting that he began his career with seven consecutive submission wins.
But it's in the standup where Topuria will really have the advantage. He has excellent footwork with blazing-fast hands and some of the best boxing in the promotion. He's just entering his prime at 28 years old, and his pressure and power will be too much for the 35-year-old Oliveira to overcome.
Best bet analysis
Oliveira's tall Muay Thai stance and aggressive offense make him extremely hittable. He's been knocked out four times in his career and has also been dropped in plenty of other bouts against dangerous strikers.
Even in his most recent win against Chandler, do Bronxs was caught by a heavy shot in the fifth round and wobbled before attempting a desperation takedown. If he gets caught like that against Topuria, he won't have a chance to recover.
Five of Topuria's last seven wins have come by way of knockout, and in his most recent victory, he cracked the legendary chin of Max Holloway.
The Spaniard puts together fluid combinations and does a terrific job of targeting the body, which opens up the head. Topuria's finishing instincts and heavy hands will lead to another KO here.
Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Topuria | Oliveira |
| To win outright | -425 | +320 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -175 | +950 |
| To win by decision | +850 | +1150 |
| To win by submission | +475 | +900 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-28.
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Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira tale of the tape
| Topuria | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 16-0 | Record | 35-10 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 10 |
| 8 | Wins by submission | 21 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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