UFC 317 Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Predictions, Picks & Odds

Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano meet at the lightweight crossroads in one of our featured betting attractions on the UFC 317 undercard on June 28. 

These defensively challenged lightweights look to bring the action as both are fighting to remain inside the Top 10, and my Dariush vs. Moicano predictions expect the UFC odds underdog to pull off the win in a fight that won't go the distance.

Dariush vs Moicano prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Dariush ML (-110 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight not to go the distance (-155 at BET99)

Fight analysis
A few years ago, the MMA community wouldn’t shut up about Beneil Dariush and how other top lightweights constantly overlooked him.

Once he earned a dominant win over Mateusz Gamrot, those calls for a title shot grew louder... only to go silent after consecutive stoppage losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan.

Now at 36, Dariush faces a true crossroads fight against Renato Moicano, with both men fighting to remain relevant in a division that’s becoming increasingly unkind to aging veterans.

On paper, Dariush is still the more well-rounded fighter. He’s a dangerous grappler with a strong BJJ base and has heavy hands when he trusts his striking. Even before his recent skid, he was consistently beating solid competition and doing so impressively.

However, his defensive lapses have been costly: five of his six career losses have come by knockout because he often bites down on his mouthpiece and trades recklessly when hurt.

Statistically, he maintains a better positive striking differential than Moicano and, like his opponent, averages about two takedowns per fight — but he’s shown severe defensive limitations when he is put on the mat.

As for Moicano, it’s hard to fault him for the loss to Islam Makhachev, considering he stepped in on short notice just to save a main event. Ahead of that, he was well on his way to a major fight after knocking out Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner, and put together a complete shutout of Drew Dober.

Like Dariush, Moicano is aggressive to a fault, and he can get finished when he overcommits. When it comes to his ground game compared to Dariush, he’s a far more capable grappler.

Dariush's losses to Oliveira and Tsarukyan indicate that he's good, but not elite, and his takedown defense is solid at 80%.

Even though Moicano has been on a run, picking him means he'll likely have to get the fight on the ground, and I don't believe he's on the level of those two to get Dariush down and put him in a compromising position.

Assuming they defend each other's takedowns long enough to make the fight mostly standing, Dariush has the advantage with the superior striking and power. 

It’s risky because both fighters have questionable chins and take big chances, but I believe Dariush has the right stuff to pull this off and get the win.

Best bet analysis
Dariush hasn't gone the distance in his last six fights, and Moicano has only gone the distance once in his last eight. It’s hard to see this bout lasting three full rounds when these two fighters tend to go at a fast pace and will try to close the distance on one another from the start. 

While I like Dariush's chances, I'm not confident enough to lay a straight moneyline bet on him at plus odds. My best bet is that the fight heats up and someone gets snuffed out before things make it to the score table.

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano odds

Method of Victory	Dariush	Moicano
To win outright	-110	-115
To win by KO/TKO	+380	+525
To win by decision	+260	+350
To win by submission	+850	+365
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

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Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano tale of the tape

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