UFC 317 Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Predictions, Picks & Odds

The main card of UFC 317 kicks off with a bantamweight clash between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima, a pair of exciting prospects who should deliver an intriguing stylistic matchup.

Talbott suffered his first professional loss earlier this year, while Lima has won 14 straight bouts, including both of his first two fights in the UFC.

Lima comes into this fight as the favorite in the UFC odds, and he's on his way to 15 straight wins in my UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima predictions for Saturday, June 28.

Talbott vs Lima prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Lima moneyline (-190 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Payton Talbott has been a controversial figure ever since he made his UFC debut back in November 2023.

Whether it’s his exciting striking style, unique tattoos, or his impressive track record, everyone’s got something to say about the 26-year-old prospect.

Those talking points were only accentuated following Talbott's last fight back in January, as he suffered his first-ever professional loss at the hands of veteran Raoni Barcelos.

Talbott entered that fight as a massive favorite around -1150 and was humbled by a 37-year-old Barcelos, who put on a grappling clinic. The Brazilian landed eight of 15 takedown attempts, outstruck Talbott 91-59, and garnered nearly 10 minutes of control.

The question is whether that defeat was a one-off for Talbott or a true “fraud check.”

We’ll likely see Talbott’s slick striking on display against Felipe Lima on Saturday night, but this does shape up as another bad stylistic matchup for the bantamweight. Lima may not have the same knockout power as Talbott, with only one KO win in the last six and a half years, but Barcelos clearly laid out the blueprint to victory.

Lima is averaging 1.71 takedowns per fight with a 42% takedown accuracy — significantly better than Barcelos (33%). “Jungle Boy” is also a legitimate threat on the ground with 1.1 submission attempts per fight and an impressive submission win under his belt against Muhammad Naimov a year ago.

That’s not to say that Lima will necessarily find a submission against Talbott, but his ability to mix styles and get this fight to the ground gives him the edge.

Best bet analysis
If this fight goes the way Talbott wants, it’s likely over in the first two rounds by way of a flashy knockout.

However, Lima, like his countryman Barcelos, will have a lot to say about how this fight flows as he looks to get it to the ground and grind Talbott down.

Lima has never been knocked out in his decade-long professional career, while five of his last seven bouts have gone to decision, and six of his last eight have eclipsed 2.5 rounds.

Barcelos couldn’t finish Talbott with nearly 10 minutes of control, so I don’t know how likely it is that Lima ends this one early.

More likely, I see “Jungle Boy” earning the decision or perhaps a late submission after grinding Talbott down for the first two and a half rounds.

Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima odds

Method of Victory	Talbott	Lima
To win outright	+155	-190
To win by KO/TKO	+380	+850
To win by decision	+440	+115
To win by submission	+1750	+500
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

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Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima tale of the tape

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