Mario Bautista faces off against Vinicius "Lok Dog" Oliveira in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday.
This should be an exciting fight between a pair of Top 15 bantamweights who are known for their pressure kick-boxing. UFC odds have Bautista as a -160 favorite, with Lok Dog coming back at +125.
Here are my best Bautista vs. Oliveira predictions and free betting picks for February 7 from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas.
Bautista vs Oliveira prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Bautista moneyline (-160 at BET99)
- My best bet: Bautista moneyline (-160 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Mario Bautista is coming off a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov that snapped an eight-fight win streak. That defeat actually raised Bautista's stock since he performed better than expected against the No. 2 contender, even dropping him with a knee in the second round.
Meanwhile, Vinicius Oliveira is 4-0 in the UFC with his biggest win coming by unanimous decision against Kyler Phillips last July.
Oliveira is sloppy with his striking and tends to swing wildly while leaving himself open to counters. He could find himself in trouble against a more technical fighter like Bautista, who has cleaner striking, better wrestling, and the superior gas tank.
The latter factor could play a big role in a five-round main event since Bautista has shown the ability to maintain a high pace, while Lok Dog has slowed down even in three-round bouts.
Best bet analysis
Oliveira is a physical specimen and hits like a truck, but Bautista is more skilled and has proven himself against higher-caliber opponents.
Lok Dog seems like he's knockout-or-bust, while Bautista has more paths to victory. I'm more than willing to pay the -160 moneyline price for Bautista here.
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Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Bautista | Oliveira |
| To win outright | -140 | +120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +320 |
| To win by decision | +220 | +380 |
| To win by submission | +405 | +1400 |
| Draw | +3000 | +3000 |
Odds as of 2-7.
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Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira tale of the tape
| Bautista | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 70.5 inches |
| 16-3 | Record | 23-3 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 16 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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