UFC Fight Night in Edmonton will feature a dozen Canadians, including Jasmine Jasudavicius, who goes toe-to-toe with Erin Blanchfield in a women's flyweight bout.
Despite the home crowd behind the Canadian, my Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius predictions lean toward the more polished Blanchfield, who enters as a 76% favorite.
Below, I'll break down the latest UFC odds and my free picks for Saturday, Oct. 17.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Erin Blanchfield | 76% |
| Fight to go the distance | 76% |
| Erin Blanchfield by decision | 56% |
| Combo | 6.9x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius: Blanchfield (76% Probability)
Everyone loves a hometown fighter, but Erin Blanchfield has every advantage here: she's 10 years younger yet somehow more experienced and polished than Jasmine Jasudavicius, and she'll have a significant edge once this fight hits the mat.
I'm not sure Jasudavicius will get completely dominated, since she's only been finished once in her 19-fight career. But Blanchfield will have multiple paths to victory, and she'll prove that she's the better fighter over three rounds.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius top pick: Fight to go the distance (76% Probability)
There's essentially only one way I can see this fight ending before the final bell: a Blanchfield submission. That could certainly happen, but it's much more likely that they go the distance.
Jasudavicius has a solid 75% takedown defense and has been taken down only once in her last 10 fights.
Blanchfield has gone to a decision in six of her last 10 bouts, while Jasudavicius has heard the final bell in 11 of her last 15 fights.
COVERS INTEL: Blanchfield has a significant strike differential of +0.99, while Jasudavicius' differential is just +0.01.Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius prop: Erin Blanchfield by decision (56% Probability)
Blanchfield will probably need to get this fight to the ground to end it early, but she averages just 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I don't see Blanchfield creating a ton of submission opportunities against Jasudavicius, who has the size advantage and has historically been difficult to take down.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius combo
My most confident pick is Blanchfield by decision, but Blanchfield by submission within two rounds offers a much better payout.
Blanchfield has five submission wins in her career, all within the first two rounds.
She needed just two takedowns to land a rear-naked choke on Tracy Cortez at UFC 322 last year, and Cortez had not been submitted in eight years before that defeat.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Erin Blanchfield | Jasmine Jasudavicius |
| To win outright | 76% | 25% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 9% | 3% |
| To win by decision | 56% | 17% |
| To win by submission | 15% | 5% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 76% |
No 27% |
Odds as of 10-16.
Blanchfield is heavily favored to win, with a decision being the most likely outcome.
She is live for a submission, given her BJJ advantage, so I don't mind a sprinkle on Blanchfield by submission at 15%.
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Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius tale of the tape
| Erin Blanchfield | Jasmine Jasudavicius | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| Women's flyweight | Weight Class | Women's flyweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 14-2-0 | Record | 15-4-0 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 5 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Jasudavicius will have a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage, though those physical factors likely won't matter much in what will probably be a grappling-heavy match.
Both fighters earn most of their victories by decision, with Blanchfield winning seven and Jasudavicius winning nine.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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