Former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa moves up to light heavyweight to face Azamat Murzakanov in tonight's co-main event for UFC 327.
Murzakanov is the No. 6-ranked contender, and UFC odds have him listed as a -240 favorite.
Here are my best free Murzakanov vs. Costa predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, April 11, live from the Kaseya Center in Miami.
Murzakanov vs Costa fight prediction: Murzakanov moneyline (-240)
Azamat Murzaknaov boasts a perfect 16-0 record, and he's 7-0 inside the octagon after knocking out Aleksandar Rakic last October. Meanwhile, Costa is 2-3 in his last five with both wins coming by decision.
Costa was one of the most physically imposing fighters at middleweight but he won't have that advantage at 205 pounds. Likewise, Murzakanov is significantly shorter with less reach than elite light heavyweights, but won't give up much size here.
Costa is a pressure fighter who is extremely hittable and lacks fight IQ. That's bad news against the explosive and hard-hitting Murzakanov, who has great timing on his counters.
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Murzakanov vs Costa best bet: Murzakanov by KO/TKO (+180)
Costa's forward pressure makes him vulnerable against precise counter strikers like Murzakanov.
The Brazilian was starched by Israel Adesanya when he challenged for the belt in 2020. Costa hasn't been knocked out since, but he faced a slew of opponents who don't have much power in their hands.
He was able to eat shots from guys at 185 pounds, but Costa won’t be smiling and sticking his tongue out when Murzakanov lands on him. The Russian is one of the hardest hitters at light heavyweight, and seven of his last eight wins have come by KO/TKO.
COVERS INTEL: Paulo Costa absorbs a whopping 6.20 significant strikes per minute, with 64.6% of those strikes landing to his head.Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Murzakanov | Costa |
| To win outright | -245 | +190 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +180 | +440 |
| To win by decision | +160 | +510 |
| To win by submission | +1800 | +2900 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -270 |
Under 1.5 +200 |
Odds as of 4-11.
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Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa tale of the tape
| Murzakanov | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Light Heavyweight | Weight Class | Light Heavyweight |
| 71 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 16-0 | Record | 15-4 |
| 12 | Wins by KO | 11 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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