Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira renew their rivalry in a rematch that promises fireworks as two of the middleweight division’s most ferocious finishers collide on the UFC 326 undercard.
Rodrigues is the favorite in the UFC odds at -160 while Ferreira is a +130 underdog. Here are my Rodrigues vs. Ferreira predictions and free betting picks, where I see the former prevailing in a long bout.
Rodrigues vs Ferreira prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Rodrigues moneyline (-160 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Brunno Ferreira won the first encounter with Gregory Rodrigues by first-round stoppage in 2023, and both fighters have raised their profile to varying degrees three years later.
However, Rodrigues is the more developed fighter heading into this rematch.
He’s rounded out his game to the point where he can compete with former title contenders, carrying power in both hands while also possessing a dangerous BJJ arsenal if the fight hits the mat. He’s also difficult to take down and uncomfortable to engage in extended exchanges.
Rodrigues delivered a complete performance in his recent win over Roman Kopylov at UFC 322 and scored a first-round knockout against Jack Hermansson before that.
“Robocop” is relentless when it comes to inflicting damage and has shown he can finish fights both standing and on the ground.
Ferreira remains one of the most dangerous starters in the division. His pressure-heavy style creates chaos early, something Rodrigues knows well after their first encounter. However, Ferreira’s aggression often comes at the cost of discipline, and his effectiveness tends to fade as fights progress.
Both of his losses came by stoppage to Nursultan Ruziboev and Abus Magomedov, and he followed those setbacks with a questionable decision win over a declining Marvin Vettori.
Rodrigues’ growth since their first meeting will be the difference-maker. He’s the more complete fighter now and has proven his finishing ability against stronger competition.
While Ferreira’s explosive opening round makes this a dangerous matchup, Rodrigues should have the tools to weather that early storm and gradually take control. Rodrigues is the pick.
Best bet analysis
Despite both fighters carrying legitimate finishing ability, the key to this fight may be Rodrigues’ ability to slow the pace and neutralize Ferreira’s early aggression. If Rodrigues manages the opening exchanges and forces Ferreira into a longer fight, his more measured approach could dictate the outcome.
My best bet is that this fight goes Over 1.5 rounds.
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Rodrigues | Ferreira |
| To win outright | -160 | +130 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +285 |
| To win by decision | +390 | +510 |
| To win by submission | +500 | +1500 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 3-7.
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Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira tale of the tape
| Rodrigues | Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 18-6 | Record | 15-2 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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