I'm backing rising star Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC 326 on Saturday, while also betting on promotional newcomer Alberto Montes. I also expect the co-main event between Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder to go the distance, and I'm parlaying the UFC odds for those bets at a +311 payout.
Check out my UFC 326 predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, March 7.
Best UFC 326 parlay picks
Alberto Montes by submission or decision
Raul Rosas Jr. ML
Borralho vs de Ridder to go the distance
Alberto Montes by submission or decision (-120)
Alberto Montes makes his UFC debut against Ricky Turcios who has lost three of his last four fights. Turcios struggled with his defensive grappling at 135 pounds and now he's moving up featherweight where he'll face even stronger opponents.
Montes is 10-1 in his career but has just one knockout and Turcios has slightly better striking. However, Montes has the significant grappling advantage with six career wins by submission.
Turcios has lost four times inside the octagon with three coming by points and the other via rear naked choke. If Montes can't find the sub, he'll grind out a decision victory.
Raul Rosas Jr. ML (-290)
Rob Font is coming off a loss to David Martinez, and at 38 years old he's practically a fossil at bantamweight. Meanwhile, Raul Rosas Jr. is 17 years younger and enters on a four-fight win streak.
Rosas is a high-end grappler who has piled up 11 takedowns with 23 minutes of control time over his last three bouts. That's bad news for Font who has poor takedown defense and lacks the strength and scrambling ability to get back to his feet.
Font wasn't taken down in his last fight but he was taken down 22 times and controlled for 34 minutes in his previous four bouts. Raul's physicality and jiu-jitsu will be too much for him here.
Borralho vs de Ridder to go the distance (-150)
Six of Borralho's last eight fights have gone the distance. The only exceptions were a KO versus chinny Paul Craig and a submission against Michał Oleksiejczuk who is notoriously weak on the mat.
Short of landing a big knee, Reinier de Ridder's only path to a finish is via submission. However, Borralho is a BJJ black belt with excellent defensive grappling and the ability to reverse position.
Not intended for use in MA.
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