An action-packed main card at UFC 326 opens with a lightweight bout between a pair of veterans in Drew Dober and Michael Johnson.
Johnson comes into the bout as the slight favorite in the UFC odds at -115, while Dober hits back at -110.
I’ll break down why Johnson’s experience gives him the edge in my Dober vs. Johnson predictions and free betting picks below.
Dober vs Johnson prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Johnson moneyline (-115 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight to not go the distance (-190 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Most guys are out of the UFC by their late 30s, but 37-year-old Drew Dober and 39-year-old Michael Johnson are clearly exceptions to the rule.
Dober looked like he was nearing the end of the tunnel with three straight losses, but he got back in the win column in October with a KO victory over Kyle Prepolec. Meanwhile, Johnson is aging like fine wine with three straight wins and a 4-1 record over his last five fights.
This will be an interesting clash of styles as Dober is very much a kill-or-be-killed kind of guy, while Johnson is happy to stay safe and beat his opponents at range with his jab.
Dober probably packs a harder punch, but Johnson has a much higher fight IQ, which is why he’s shared the octagon with names like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje.
Ultimately, defense will be the difference maker here. Dober absorbs 4.34 significant strikes per minute, while Johnson takes just 3.79.
Best bet analysis
I don’t hate Johnson to win by decision at +255, but it’s probably safer to hedge a potential KO on either side and take this fight to end inside the distance.
Dober’s fights rarely reach the final bell, with eight of his last nine bouts ending by stoppage. In fact, only two of Dober’s last 15 fights have gone to the scorecards.
We’ll likely see Johnson find his range and win the first round, which will lead to absolute chaos in the second round and onwards, where either man can land a finishing blow.
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Dan Dober vs Michael Johnson odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Dober | Johnson |
| To win outright | -115 | -115 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +175 | +220 |
| To win by decision | +390 | +255 |
| To win by submission | +2700 | +3000 |
Odds as of 3-5.
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Dan Dober vs Michael Johnson tale of the tape
| Dober | Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 39 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 28-15 (1 NC) | Record | 24-19 |
| 15 | Wins by KO | 10 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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