UFC 324 marks the beginning of a new era for the promotion, as it is the first free premium card in its partnership with Paramount.
An interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett tops the main card, and the undercard is stacked with excellent fights.
Here are my best free UFC 324 preliminary predictions from Las Vegas.
UFC 324 prelim picks and predictions
Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman
• Prediction: Smotherman ML (-190)
• Best Bet: Smotherman by decision (+110)
Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson
• Prediction: Johnson ML (-200)
• Best Bet: Johnson by decision (+190)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo
• Prediction: Nurmagomedov ML (-1500)
• Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision (-115)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 324 prelim odds and picks
Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Turcios | Smotherman |
| To win outright | +150 | -190 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1150 | +390 |
| To win by decision | +300 | +110 |
| To win by submission | +675 | +2000 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-24.
Cameron Smotherman hasn’t looked bad in his last two defeats, but it's clear he struggles against competent wrestlers and fighters who can get him on the mat.
Lucky for him, Turcios is neither. While Turcios made his bones as a wrestler, he’s turned into a low-output striker that doesn’t incorporate or score takedowns in his gameplan.
With Smotherman, the buiser and more accurate striker, he’ll manage to stay a step ahead of Turcios, who spends too much time getting started and doesn’t seem to fight with any sense of urgency.
Out of these two struggling bantamweights, Smotherman has more of an upside.
Prediction: Smotherman moneyline (-190 at BET99)
Best Bet: Smotherman by decision (+110 at BET99)
Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Perez | Johnson |
| To win outright | +145 | -175 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +525 | +510 |
| To win by decision | +275 | +310 |
| To win by submission | +2400 | +315 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-24.
Alex Perez is an action fighter who fights with plenty of intensity and is always looking to inflict damage, but he has been on a decline — going 1-4 over his last five fights.
Johnson doesn’t possess the same explosiveness or bad intentions as the veteran, though he fights at a frenetic pace and has excellent conditioning.
While Perez is dangerous early on, he tends to gas out and gets frustrated if he cannot maintain his offense. All Johnson has to do is stay upright and not take too much damage in the opening round, and that should be sufficient to outpace Perez for a win.
Prediction: Johnson moneyline (-200 at BET99)
Best Bet: Johnson by decision (+190 at BET99)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nurmagomedov | Figueiredo |
| To win outright | -1400 | +730 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +700 | +2400 |
| To win by decision | -115 | +1400 |
| To win by submission | +155 | +2400 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-24.
Umar Nurmagomedov is in virtually no danger of losing this fight, as the 38-year-old Figueiredo likely used the last of what was left in the tank to outpoint Montel Jackson last October.
Figueiredo’s most lopsided losses since moving up to bantamweight came against strong wrestlers, and there are few in the entire sport as disciplined and efficient as Nurmagomedov.
Figueiredo’s at his best when he can make the fight chaotic, but Nurmagomedov’s consistency and patience will essentially close the doors on him turning the fight into a brawl.
While this fight figures to be a potential wipeout, Nurmagomedov won’t press the action more than he has to, and that means he won’t aggressively try to finish Figueiredo — whose best chance at victory lies in either a defensive lapse during a striking exchange or a sloppy takedown he can convert to a guillotine.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-1500 at BET99)
Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision (-115 at BET99)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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