UFC 322 is the biggest card of the year, and the top of the card features two title fights that have legacy-defining implications as Zhang Weili moves up to face Valentina Shevchenko, and Islam Makhachev challenges Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title.
The preliminary card could stand on its own and still be considered a tremendously strong one, featuring the likes of Chepe Mariscal, Gregory Rodrigues, and a returning Bo Nickal.
Here are my best free picks and predictions for the UFC 322 prelims from New York.
UFC 322 prelim picks and predictions
Fight 1
• Prediction: Mariscal moneyline (+105)
• Best Bet: Mariscal moneyline (+105)
Fight 2
• Prediction: Rodrigues moneyline (-200)
• Best Bet: Rodrigues by decision (+270)
Fight 3
• Prediction: Nickal moneyline (-240)
• Best Bet: Nickal by decision (+135)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 322 prelim odds and picks
Jose Mariscal vs. Pat Sabatini fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Mariscal | Sabatini |
| To win outright | -110 | -110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +320 | +1450 |
| To win by decision | +335 | +185 |
| To win by submission | +700 | +450 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-15.
When I checked the fight and saw Jose Mariscal as an underdog, I couldn’t believe my eyes.
Pat Sabatini is no slouch, but Mariscal is the better grappler and striker, and Sabatini tends to fold when pressured. I don’t see him being able to slow Mariscal down or land something significant enough to reclaim any lost momentum.
Bettors are sleeping on Mariscal at this point, so now is the right time to pick up an excellent value pick by betting Mariscal straight-up.
Prediction: Mariscal moneyline (+105 at BET99)
Best Bet: Mariscal moneyline (+105 at BET99)
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Roman Kopylov fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Rodrigues | Kopylov |
| To win outright | -190 | +145 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +280 | +240 |
| To win by decision | +235 | +675 |
| To win by submission | +450 | +4000 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-15.
While Gregory Rodrigues is best known for his punishing striking power, he possesses a strong grappling background and will be able to use his varied skill set to shut Roman Kopylov down.
Kopylov might be the better striker in a technical sense, but he’s going to be at a disadvantage as Rodrigues is the more effective pressure fighter and will land the heavier shots. Rodrigues should be able to exploit Kopylov’s takedown defense, and Kopylov simply doesn’t do well when he’s put on the mat.
Expect a controlled, methodical effort rather than a brawl. While the relentless pressure and power of "Robocop" can’t be denied, Kopylov is durable and able to hang in there in a fight that should mostly be standing.
Rodrigues is the pick, and I like him to win by decision.
Prediction: Rodrigues moneyline (-200 at BET99)
Best Bet: Rodrigues by decision (+270 at BET99)
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nickal | Vieira |
| To win outright | -225 | +175 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +285 | +1350 |
| To win by decision | +135 | +575 |
| To win by submission | +950 | +425 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-15.
Bo Nickal is making his return after Reiner De Ridder derailed the train, but the UFC is hoping to get him back on track with another opponent who should succumb to Nickal’s size and wrestling prowess.
Rodolfo Viera has great BJJ, but his striking is limited and he isn’t going to try taking Nickal down, opting instead to try and snatch something in a scramble. If Nickal gets Viera on the mat at any point, the fight is essentially over.
Vieira won’t be able to out-wrestle Nickal, and he essentially has to if he wants to win, as Vieira does his best when he has top control. Expect this fight to be a slower-paced striking affair with Nickal’s heavier, precise strikes doing enough to get him back to the win column with a decision.
Prediction: Nickal moneyline (-240 at BET99)
Best Bet: Nickal by decision (+135 at BET99)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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