UFC 322 Sean Brady vs Michael Morales Predictions, Picks & Odds

A major welterweight fight with title implications takes place on the UFC 322 undercard when the once-beaten Sean Brady takes on undefeated Michael Morales, and there’s no doubt that Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev will be watching ahead of their championship clash at the top of the card.

Brady is a -135 favorite in the UFC odds, while Morales is a +110 underdog. Here are my Brady vs. Morales predictions and free betting picks from New York.

Brady vs Morales prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Brady moneyline (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Brady moneyline (-135 at BET99)

Fight analysis
There is a sense that this fight puts one of these welterweights on a fast track toward title contention and sends the other back into the thick of the pack.

At its core, it’s a classic matchup between the seasoned grappler in Sean Brady versus the dynamic striker in Michael Morales. Morales is seven years younger and looks every bit a prodigy, but Brady has demonstrated the kind of wrestling abilities that are common in long-reigning champions.

Brady rebuilt himself into a contender after the loss to Belal Muhammad, which was the kind of defeat that forces a fighter to confront every weakness. His game is all about wrestling pressure and takedowns, and he's an absolute terror on the ground.

He lands 3.62 takedowns per fight with 54% accuracy, and in his last three fights alone, he is averaging almost nine minutes of control time.

His striking isn’t flashy, but it’s functional and heavy enough to force reactions that create level-change opportunities. That's exactly what he did to Leon Edwards in his last fight, snatching him up with a guillotine choke and making it look easy.

He's going to go right for Morales from the start, and he'll have to, as Morales is taller and longer. 

Morales represents the other side of the welterweight evolution. He is long, fast, powerful, and unorthodox.

He lands 5.62 significant strikes per minute with a healthy +2.31 differential, and he does so with fluid mechanics that make his attacks difficult to read. His 89% takedown defense suggests he has the physical tools to stay upright, but Brady is not the type of wrestler you keep off with athleticism alone.

Morales will have early opportunities to do damage with his reach and speed, but if he allows Brady to enter on a straight line and change levels, the momentum begins to tilt immediately. As quick as Morales can be on offense, he tends to get caught because of his lack of head movement and may rely too much on his chin, despite it not being tested.

This is too soon for Morales. He hasn't faced someone who can put him on his back and keep him there. If he can’t hurt Brady early or force him to respect the striking advantage, Brady’s pressure and grappling efficiency will take over.

Morales is skilled enough to create danger, but Brady has reached the stage where he's winning not just with tools, but with maturity and awareness of when and where to impose his strengths. Brady is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Brady is tough enough and sturdy enough to absorb Morales’ early attacks, close the distance, and put his takedown defense to the test. Morales’ window of opportunity is inside the first round and a half, but if he can’t get it done, Brady will take him down and take over the fight. 

Sean Brady vs Michael Morales odds

Method of Victory	Brady	Morales
To win outright	-135	+110
To win by KO/TKO	+700	+300
To win by decision	+190	+300
To win by submission	+425	+2500
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 11-15.

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Sean Brady vs Michael Morales tale of the tape

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