UFC 300 Weili vs Xiaonan Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Weili Won't Allow For Wild Upset

Zhang Weili is still going strong in her second turn as strawweight champion, and Yan Xiaonan does not have the tools to pull off a UFC 300 stunner, per our UFC betting picks.

Apr 13, 2024 • 20:10 ET • 4 min read
Weili UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan serves as tonight's co-main event of UFC 300, and this strawweight title match is going to be an exhibition of will vs. skill when these two collide at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Weili looks to continue her second reign as strawweight champion against the determined Xiaonan, who may be outgunned in this championship tilt. UFC odds have Weili as a -475 favorite to defend her title, and Xiaonan is a +375 underdog. 

Here are my free betting picks for Weili vs. Xiaonan at UFC 300.

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan fight odds

Method of Victory Weili Xiaonan
To win outright -475 +350
To win by KO/TKO +110 +1,000
To win by points +240 +900
To win by submission +450 +2,100
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

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Weili vs Xiaonan picks

Fight prediction: Weili

There’s no doubt that Xiaonan has looked great in her last two fights. She edged out Mackenzie Dern and shockingly knocked out Jessica Andrade, and she’s a deserving contender to challenge the destructive Weili. However, there are simply too many things that have to happen here for Xiaonan to spring what would be a huge upset.  

The knockout of Andrade was unexpected simply because she isn’t that kind of striker. To beat Weili, it takes a fighter with considerable power and a high threshold for punishment, and none of those apply to Xiaonan. Once Weili gets in her offensive rhythm, she fights hard until the end or her opponent gets folded. It’s hard to imagine a low-powered, volume-based striker getting the better of her in the stand-up.

Weili is also an aggressive wrestler, and she can straight-up maul foes with her raw strength. We’ve seen Xiaonan unable to stop fighters with that type of well-rounded skill, such as when Carla Esparza beat her in strikes and on the ground en route to a third-round TKO, and Weili is leagues better than anyone she’s faced. 

Again, a meritorious challenger, but not a worthy one. For Xiaonan to win, she’ll need to fight a picture-perfect fight for five rounds and not slip up once. That alone is reason enough to write off her chances, especially as she can get hit and dragged down to the ground, where Weili can brutally end the night.

Weili is such a hard fighter to beat not just because she’s tough and incredibly intelligent. There are a lot of good things Xiaonan does that could keep her at or near the top of the division for a few more years, but this is a stylistic nightmare for her and it will play out as such when the bell rings.

I’m going with Weili to successfully defend her title.

Prediction: Weili moneyline (-475 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Weili by knockout

Weili won’t have the iron will and heavy hands of Rose Namajunas opposing her in the octagon here. With Xiaonan’s reputation as a volume striker with only a single KO since joining the UFC in 2016, Weili will stalk an evasive Xiaonan and be on the verge of overwhelming her if they trade blows.

However, Xiaonan is defensively mindful enough and possesses good footwork, allowing her to be elusive. Unless she can frustrate Weili into mistakenly shooting in or outright mystifying her with her defense, her path to victory likely involves a hit-and-run strategy that might not sit well with the judges.

Weili has secured finishes in three of her last five wins. Furthermore, she’s never looked better than she has over her last three fights. Though she’s perhaps nearing the end of her physical prime, she is poised to reign at strawweight with an iron fist if she continues delivering the type of performances we’ve seen from her since regaining the title.

I don’t see how Xiaonan can work this out to make it to the final bell. The lack of power and tendency to absorb takedowns will eventually doom her past the halfway point. My best bet for this fight is for Weili to win by knockout.

Pick: Weili by knockout (+120 at Bet99)

Weili vs Xiaonan betting preview

Weili is making the third defense of her second title reign at strawweight. She’s scored wins over Lemos, Esparza, Andrade, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, with her only two losses in the UFC coming to Namajunas. 'Magnum' does a little of everything, landing 5.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.44 in return. She can be vicious in takedowns, landing 2.29 per fight at 42% accuracy. Her average fight time is 12 minutes and 25 seconds, and she has 19 total finishes in 24 wins.

Xiaonan is technically solid and coming off a series of strong performances. She is coming off back-to-back wins over Andrade and Dern, which followed a two-fight losing streak to Esparza and Marina Rodriguez. 'Nine' is busy with her hands, landing 5.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.56. She has decent takedown defense, stopping 70% of them. She is a distance fighter, with her average fight time being 14 minutes and two seconds. This is her first UFC title fight.

We’ve seen Weili be more than willing to trade shots because of her faith in her striking power, and she could be feeling plenty risky as Xiaonan is not known for her striking power. Xiaonan must avoid the mat, which has been a problem for her in recent fights.

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan tale of the tape

Weili   Xiaonan
35 Age 35
5-foot-4 Height 5-foot-5
115 pounds Weight 115 pounds
63 inches Reach 63 inches
24-3-0 Record 18-3-0 (1 NC)

Not intended for use in MA.
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