UFC 295 Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Don't Expect a Quick KO

Featherweight grapplers Pat Sabatini and Diego Lopes aim to climb the rankings with their grappling skills in a featured attraction on the UFC 295 undercard this Saturday, November 11, from Madison Square Garden in New York.

Sabatini takes on fan-favorite Lopes in a matchup that will likely be a captivating encounter for grappling enthusiasts.

UFC odds have Sabatini the favorite at -122, with Lopes a +102 underdog. Here are my free picks for Sabatini vs. Lopes at UFC 295 from New York.

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini fight odds

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 11, 2023.

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini picks

Fight prediction: Sabatini ML

Pat Sabatini — an established UFC competitor and highly skilled grappler — seems to be getting overlooked in this fight. Though Sabatini’s limited striking ability and questionable damage resistance can doom him on any given night, this fight figures to be right up his alley. Sabatini is coming off a win over the once-beaten Lucas Almeida last June and has gone 4-1 in his last five bouts.

Diego Lopes is best known for surviving as a last-minute substitute opponent for Movsar Evolev. To the shock of many, Lopes didn’t get wiped out by the featherweight division’s best ground technician, and he showed solid BJJ and grit. Lopes rebounded with a first-round submission win over Gavin Tucker in August.

Though Lopes is getting a lot of love for his effort against Evolev, he's too willing to get on the ground. Against lower-level fighters who can fall into that trap, Lopes becomes a dynamic submission specialist with a relentless pursuit of finishes. That won’t work against Sabatini, who has succeeded against better opponents and won’t take the bait.

Neither of these two are strikers, and stylistically speaking, Sabatini might be able to outwit Lopes with his strategic approach.

Prediction: Sabatini moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

Because Lopes likes to get on the mat — whether he puts his opponents there or they put him there — he’s playing right into Sabatini’s hands. This could potentially be a grappling-centric bout where we have two selective strikers that operate better on the ground. Lacking striking power, Lopes won’t crack Sabatini’s compromised chin and might find himself outmatched on the ground.

There could be a lot of positioning and attempts to pass guard when these two do hit the mat. Time will go by, and it might not be very scintillating, but this fight is destined to head to the scorecards. My best bet is that if there is a submission, it won’t happen later in the fight. Otherwise, this is going Over 2.5 rounds.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+110 at DraftKings)

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini betting preview

Sabatini, the black-belt grappler, is a terror on the ground thanks to his collegiate wrestling. The Bristol warrior has emerged as a formidable contender with wins over the likes of Tristian Connelly, Jamal Emmers, and Alameida.

Lopes burst on the scene in a valiant effort against Evolev, then showed he was here to stay with a win over Tucker in his next fight. A seasoned submission specialist, Lopes is known for his surprise finishes and relishes taking the fight to the ground.

With both fighters shying away from striking, this will likely be a ground war. Sabatini’s wrestling coupled with his BJJ figures to give him an advantage, but Lopes’ slight edge in striking could make a difference if neither fighter can take the other to the mat.

Lopes is the younger fighter and will possess a three-inch advantage in height, and a two-and-a-half-inch advantage in reach.

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini tale of the tape

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