Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze is scheduled for three rounds in the middleweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 286 undercard, taking place tonight at the O2 Arena in London.
Title challenger Vettori is reeling from losses against top-tier foes, and the surging Dolidze hopes to take his spot as a premier challenger.
UFC odds are backing Vettori to come out on top at -275, and despite his recent performances, Dolidze is a moderate +230 underdog.
Here are our UFC picks and predictions for Vettori vs. Dolidze at UFC 286.
Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze fight odds
Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Marvin Vettori | Roman Dolidze |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +600 |
| To win by Points | -125 | +850 |
| To win by Submission | +650 | +750 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 16, 2023.
Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze betting preview
Marvin Vettori comes into this fight after suffering another debilitating loss at the top of the division, and now he has to fend off a rising contender in Dolidze. This fight will answer whether Vettori still belongs among the middleweight elite, or if Dolidze can make the most of his late career push and take his spot.
Robert Whittaker washed Vettori out, and just two fights before that, Vettori was easily beaten by then-champion Israel Adesanya. With all his grappling ability and slippery defense, Vettori can beat a lot of fighters, but we get the sense that we’ve seen his talent ceiling. The Italian submission artist is known for being slick, but he can throw down if he has to and has underrated striking technique.
Against Dolidze, he’s going to look to get him on the ground. He averages 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes at 44% accuracy with 0.6 submission attempts. Being a southpaw might create striking opportunities and angles for Vettori, but he isn't looking to turn this into a brawl.
Roman Dolidze will have to hope he can. The 34-year-old is riding a four-fight win streak where he has looked like an absolute bulldog. He recently scored a big win over Jack Hermansson last December and is now auditioning for a chance to be considered a true elite. His last three fights have all come by knockout.
If Dolidze is for real, this will be his coming-out party. He lands 2.12 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and has an average fight time of nine minutes and 36 seconds. The best way for Dolidze to win this fight is to be first and prevent Vettori from getting into a rhythm — and one good shot could set the pace to score the biggest win of his career.
Vettori has a hard time fighting from behind. He doesn’t have the x-factors to turn a fight around that is slipping away. Dolidze has poor takedown defense and an overly conservative striking output, which could be disastrous for him.
Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze tale of the tape
| Marvin Vettori | Roman Dolidze | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 74 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 18-6-1 (2 KO) | Record | 12-1 (7 KO) |
Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Vettori
There are levels to the game, and Vettori still fights at a high level. Dolidze is beating the opponents he’s expected to in the fashion he’s expected to, but this is a huge step up for him. It isn’t as if Vettori can’t hold his own against big strikers. Is Dolidze a better striker than Costa or Holland? I don’t think so.
Dolidze could be dangerous in the first round and parts of the second, yet Vettori can do the better work while draining his gas tank. Fighters who throw as little as Dolidze does happens to be a sign that maybe their conditioning could be a problem, and Vettori is likely to take him down and wear him out on the ground.
If Vettori struggled against anyone outside of Whittaker and Adesanya, this could be a more competitive fight. He hasn't, and this is a step down in intensity for him.
“The Italian Dream” gets it done here.
Prediction: Vettori moneyline (-275 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds
Vettori doesn’t have the striking power or debilitating wrestling ability to stop the fight inside the distance.
Once Dolidze starts to tire, especially if he can’t get Vettori out of there early, this fight will slow down and inch toward a decision. There could be some late-fight dramatics, and I expect this fight to go at least three rounds.
That makes me confident the best bet for the fight is betting it goes Over 2.5 rounds.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-205 at DraftKings)
