UFC 283 Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill Picks and Predictions: Teixeira Enjoys a Sweet Rebound

Glover Teixeira's first title defense slipped away in the dying seconds but with the belt vacated, the veteran has a great shot at earning it back vs. Jamahal Hill. Our UFC betting picks highlight the value in the headliner of UFC 283 from Rio de Janeiro.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2023 8:21 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill is the headline event for UFC 283 betting on Saturday, January 21.

Teixeira was originally expected to have a rematch against Jiri Prochazka for the light heavyweight championship but Prochazka chose to vacate the belt due to a shoulder injury. The surging Hill will now face Teixeira for the vacant title.

UFC odds opened with Hill as a slim -132 favorite and the former champ Teixeira coming back at +104. Here are my best free UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill picks and predictions for January 21 from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill fight odds

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill method of victory odds

Method of Victory Glover Teixeira Jamahal Hill
To win by KO/TKO +750 +115
To win by Points +600 +900
To win by Submission +240 +2,800
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 18, 2023.

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill betting preview

When we last saw Glover Teixeira in the octagon, in June, he lost in his first title defense against Prochazka. It was a thrilling bout that earned Fight of the Night honors and Teixeira looked to be on his way to victory until Prochazka submitted him with 28 seconds left in the fifth round. 

That defeat snapped a six-fight winning streak for Teixeira, who earned three Performance of the Night bonuses and racked up five finishes during that span. 

The 43-year-old is a highly-experienced veteran that lost by decision to Jon Jones in his first title shot back in 2014. Teixeira has a background in BJJ and is a terror on the mat, with 10 career wins by submission and many of his 18 knockout victories coming due to his brutal ground and pound. 

Jamahal "Sweet Dreams" Hill is No. 7 in the light heavyweight rankings and has won three fights in a row. He's coming off a fourth-round TKO win against Thiago Santos where he earned a Fight of the Night bonus and his previous two victories resulted in Performance of the Night bonuses. 

Hill is now 5-1 in the promotion with four wins by KO/TKO. Another impressive knockout victory was later ruled as a no-contest after Hill tested positive for marijuana (which is no longer a violation of the UFC anti-doping policy).

The 31-year-old is a long, athletic, and explosive striker with dynamite in his hands.

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill tale of the tape

Glover Teixeira   Jamahal Hill
43 Age 31
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-4
205 lbs Weight 205 lbs
76 inches Reach 79 inches
33-8-0 (18 KO) Record 11-1-0 (7 KO)

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Hill is a dynamic striker and is faster than the plodding Teixeira but he struggles in the grappling department. His lone career loss came in 2021, when Paul Craig locked in an armbar early in the first round and dislocated his elbow when he refused to tap.

He was also taken down six times by Santos in his last fight. Although Santos didn't do much with those takedowns, Teixeira is an elite grappler that will land strikes and attempt submissions from side and top control. 

When it comes to the striking exchanges, Teixeira should be able to hold his own despite his lack of lateral movement. He's a very good technical boxer who can land heavy shots in the pocket and he has the durability to withstand damage.

He was able to go toe-to-toe with Prochazka who is just as dangerous a striker (and more creative) as Hill and only lost because he got caught on the mat. Expect the well-rounded Teixeira to defeat the one-dimensional Hill. 

Prediction: Glover Teixeira moneyline (+112 at PointsBet)

This is the fifth consecutive fight that Teixeira enters as an underdog. Whether due to his age or his lack of athleticism, it seems that oddsmakers and bettors seriously underestimate him. Not only did he defeat Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos, and Jan Blachowicz as a dog, he looked extremely impressive by finishing them all. 

While he couldn't pull off the upset against Prochazka, he was less than a minute away from victory and proved that he shouldn't have been installed at +188. 

I love that we can get the veteran Teixeira at plus money against Hill. I'm placing half a unit on Teixeira to win outright and with six of his last seven victories coming inside the distance, I'm putting another half unit on the former champ to win by way of stoppage. 

PickTeixeira by KO, TKO, DQ, or submission (+160 at bet365)

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