Wimbledon 2025 will be remembered for the numerous upsets on both the Gentlemen's and Ladies' side of the draw.
Round 3 begins in earnest on Friday, and I’ve found three solid plays that hopefully don’t wind up as casualties.
Let's dive into the Wimbledon odds with my free picks and Wimbledon predictions for Friday, July 4.
Wimbledon best bets for July 4
- 🎾Mertens vs Svitolina o21.5 games (-120)
- 🎾Fritz -2.5 sets (+170)
- 🎾Rinderknech moneyline (-130)
- 💲+390 parlay💲
Wimbledon Day 5 predictions
Elise Mertens vs Elina Svitolina Over 21.5 games (-120 at FanDuel)
Elise Mertens and No. 14 Elina Svitolina have a long history and clash in what should be a tight third-round battle. Svitolina leads their head-to-head 5-3, including a June win at Bad Homburg.
Mertens’ Libema Open title, along with her big groundstrokes and pesky return game, should exploit Svitolina’s shaky serve. The Ukrainians’ defensive skills typically ensure long rallies, and both ladies do make errors.
Three of their eight meetings cleared 21.5 games. Mertens' form and Svitolina's fight should continue past 22 games.
Taylor Fritz -2.5 sets (+170 at DraftKings)
No. 5 seed Taylor Fritz has been in a couple of big-serving dogfights, but he should outshine No. 26 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Friday. Fritz has a pair of grass-court titles this season and should roll through this match.
The lanky American will wield his elite service and return game to exploit Fokina’s weaker service return, and should breeze through his service games thanks to his 78% first-serve point win rate (2025 grass).
Davidovich Fokina scraps, but Fritz’s heater combined with his red-hot form should get him across the line in straight sets.
Arthur Rinderknech moneyline (-130 at BetMGM)
Arthur Rinderknech has been on a terrific run. He’ll be the more experienced grass court player, and his experience should help him get past pesky Pole Kamil Majchrzak.
Majchrzak has had a couple of decent victories, but he arrived at SW19 on a seven-match losing streak. Rinderknech’s powerful serve and experience should outmatch Majchrzak’s inconsistent form despite his solid upset of Matteo Berrettini.
Friday’s match will be a tough one, but the price is right to ride Rinderknech’s momentum.
Today's top Wimbledon matches
- No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan Lennard Struff
- No. 5 Taylor Fritz vs. No. 26 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- No. 14 Andrey Rublev vs. Adrian Mannarino
- No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Raducanu
- No. 6 Madison Keys vs. Laura Siegemund
- No. 13 Amanda Anisimova vs. Dalma Galfi
Today’s Wimbledon parlay
Arthur Rinderknech moneyline
Mertens vs. Svitolina Over 21.5 games
Carlos Alcaraz -7.5
Current Wimbledon favorites
| Men | Women | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | +110 | Aryna Sabalenka | +185 |
| Jannik Sinner | +160 | Elena Rybakina | +450 |
| Novak Djokovic | +600 | Iga Swiatek | +650 |
| Jack Draper | +1400 | Mirra Andreeva | +1100 |
| Taylor Fritz | +2000 | Madison Keys | +1100 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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