Carlos Alcaraz is attempting to become the youngest male in the Open Era to win all four Grand Slams. Standing in his way is the only man since the Open Era to reach 10 Grand Slam semifinals without winning a major.
As a result, my Zverev vs. Alcaraz predictions expect a highly competitive matchup in the Melbourne heat.
Read on for my Australian Open picks for Thursday, January 29.
Zverev vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-800 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Over 35.5 games (-125 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz should win tonight.
The question is whether Alexander Zverev can keep the match alive in that serve plus one lane he typically flourishes in for three full sets.
Zverev just hit 24 aces and dodged trouble all night against Learner Tien, but Carlos is a different animal as a returner and a mover.
When Alcaraz gets enough balls back in play, Zverev’s forehand must hit under extra pressure, and that is where cracks usually show.
The No. 1-ranked player turns defense into offense from all three levels, and he’ll be too much for Zverev to handle.
Best best analysis
The Melbourne heat matters.
Zverev’s serve gets even harder to handle because his ball jumps, and he can win a lot of quick points without rallying. That usually means more comfortable service holds and fewer breaks, which is precisely what he needs to stay competitive.
We also know Alcaraz has had some shaky stretches in the heat, especially when points get long, and the legs start to go.
We aren’t asking Zverev to work miracles. He’s played well enough here to steal one tight set, or at least force a couple of tiebreaks and send the match Over the total.
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Zverev vs Alcaraz odds
| (3) Alexander Zverev | (1) Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| +420 | Moneyline | -600 |
| +5.5 (+100) | Game spread | -5.5 (-140) |
| Over 37.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 37.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Zverev vs Alcaraz
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Australia |
| Date | Thursday, January 29, 2026 |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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