Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina are both in top form heading into their Australian Open Women’s semifinal.
Sabalenka's Grand Slam semifinal matches can be dicey, and my Sabalenka vs. Svitolina predictions expect Svitolina to make it a match tonight.
Read on for my Australian Open betting picks for Thursday, January 29.
Svitolina vs Sabalenka prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Sabalenka moneyline (-400 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Over 20.5 games (-125 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
Aryna Sabalenka has the bigger serve and the bigger first strike, and that matters most in Melbourne, where quick points and return pressure decide matches.
Elina Svitolina can defend all day, but she still must hold serve, and Sabalenka is ruthless when she gets good looks at second serves.
Svitolina just crushed Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2, so the form is real, but this matchup is different. Sabalenka’s pace and vast experience at this stage prevent opponents from setting their feet or settling into rallies.
Sabalenka has won 26 of her last 27 matches at Melbourne Park, and that dominance usually shows up late, when the pressure rises.
Best best analysis
Sabalenka’s semifinals tend to get uncomfortable, even when she wins.
Four of her past five Grand Slam semifinal matches have gone three sets, and several featured nerve-riddled momentum swings before she finally crossed the line.
Tonight should be no exception.
Svitolina enters on a 10-match winning streak and brings enough return pressure to make Sabalenka earn every hold. She does not need to dominate. She just needs to stay close.
One extended set or a third set puts the total firmly in play, which makes Over 20.5 games (-125) the best bet in this matchup.
Svitolina vs Sabalenka odds
| (12) Elina Svitolina | (1) Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| +300 | Moneyline | -400 |
| +4.5 (-120) | Game spread | -4.5 (-120) |
| Over 20.5 (-125) | Total games | Under 20.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Svitolina vs Sabalenka
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Australia |
| Date | Thursday, January 29, 2026 |
| Time | 3:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
