Jessica Pegula makes opponents work for everything. Elena Rybakina makes points end early.
When those two strategies collide tonight on the fast Melbourne Park courts, the match probably won’t stay simple for long.
That’s why my Pegula vs. Rybakina predictions anticipate their Australian Open semifinal ending in a three-set battle.
Read on for my Australian Open betting picks for Thursday, January 29.
Pegula vs Rybakina prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Rybakina moneyline (-225 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Over 2.5 sets (+120 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
Elena Rybakina’s path to the final rests on her unplayable ceiling.
While Jessica Pegula wins with consistency and discipline, Rybakina has the raw power to take the racket out of her opponent’s hands.
Coming off a quarterfinal where she won 93% of first-serve points against Iga Swiatek, Rybakina has been nearly impossible to break when she’s hitting her spots.
On Melbourne’s fast, hard courts, her flat, deep groundstrokes cut through Pegula’s defense, which will likely be the difference maker tonight.
Pegula will compete, but Rybakina enters with eight straight wins over Top 10 opponents and the kind of peak form that can overwhelm even the steadiest baseliner.
Best best analysis
This matchup sets up for momentum swings.
Pegula’s consistency and return game are strong enough to keep her competitive, especially in cooler night conditions that take a little bite off Rybakina’s serve.
That gives Pegula a real chance to steal a set early by extending rallies and forcing longer points. But Rybakina’s ceiling is still higher.
Once her serve and first strike settle, she can take control of a set quickly. Pegula doesn’t go away easily, and Rybakina doesn’t always dominate start to finish.
That combination makes a three-set match the most natural outcome at plus-money odds.
Pegula vs Rybakina odds
| (6) Jessica Pegula | (5) Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| +180 | Moneyline | -225 |
| +3.5 (-130) | Game spread | -3.5 (-110) |
| Over 22.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Pegula vs Rybakina
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Australia |
| Date | Thursday, January 29, 2026 |
| Time | 4:40 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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