We’ve arrived at the US Open semifinal stage on the women’s side, and on the top half of the draw, we have one of the favorites to win the tournament against her toughest test yet.
This should be an excellent match between a well-supported American and a pesky defender.
I break down the US Open odds and give you my best free betting picks below.
US Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova odds and picks
| (6) Coco Gauff | (10) Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| -195 | Moneyline | +160 |
| -3.5 (-105) | Game spread | +3.5 (-115) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 7, 2023.
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Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova match prediction
These two met in the Cincinnati final just a couple of weeks ago, with Coco Gauff in a potential letdown spot after the biggest win of her career vs. Iga Swiatek.
We saw a nervy match, with Gauff breaking serve five times to Muchova’s three. Both had 5+ double faults and the errors would eventually flow off the Czech’s racquet which ultimately led to her demise.
Muchova’s defense has been superb in this tournament, taking her past the lines of Taylor Townsend and Xinyu Wang. While she’s had some good scorelines, it’s fair to say she hasn't faced much competition to this point.
Gauff, on the other hand, has had to come through a murderer’s row of opponents. She faced a pesky veteran in Laura Siegemund in the first round, a rising star in Mirra Andreeva, two former Top-5 players in Elise Mertens and Caroline Wozniacki, and finally a former Grand Slam champion in Jelena Ostapenko.
Gauff’s tough draw should have her well-prepared for Muchova here. I think her forehand — which has long been her biggest weakness — has held up under immense pressure and has looked worlds better than it did just a few weeks ago.
Gauff should have the edge against an opponent who’s been blessed with an easy draw. Her arm has also been wrapped and has been giving her serious issues in recent matches.
Prediction: Coco Gauff moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova best bet
Don’t get it twisted here, I do think Muchova has a fighting chance. After all, we saw her defeat Sabalenka in her run to the Cincinnati final and reach the final of the French Open earlier this year.
With that said, I think the slower conditions very much favor Gauff. She likes to have time over the ball, and Muchova isn’t exactly the biggest hitter on tour. On top of that, the fact the women are using the men’s heavy-duty balls here at the US Open for the first time has put a huge premium on striking the ball with force.
Gauff’s ability to generate pace has kept her afloat despite slowing courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. On the other side of the coin, the heavy balls, slow courts, and heavy air have progressively broken down Muchova’s arm.
She’s, by all accounts, dealing with a bunch of pain and I think if Gauff gets a head start here — something that’s likely in a big match with an electric crowd. Once she does, she'll be tough to slow down.
I like the Under here, but I like the price on Gauff to win 2-0 a lot more. I think she’s ready for the moment and clearly the better player in this matchup.
Best bet: Coco Gauff to win 2-0 (-105 at DraftKings)
