She may not have entered Wimbledon as one of the favorites to win, but Iga Swiatek has found a way into her first semifinal at the All England Club with an impressive run through a tough draw.
Waiting for her on the other side will be the resurgent Belinda Bencic, who finally broke through this week after bowing out in the fourth round on three separate occasions.
After dissecting the Wimbledon odds, I expect Swiatek to continue her mastery of grass and make it back to the final of a Grand Slam.
Let’s break it all down in our Bencic vs. Swiatek predictions and free betting picks for today.
Swiatek vs Bencic prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Swiatek moneyline (-300 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Under 21.5 total games (-115 at DraftKings)
Match analysis
It’s not as if Bencic’s run here at Wimbledon hasn’t been impressive, but it must be said that Thursday's semifinal match will present her toughest challenge yet.
In landing 70% of her first serves, Bencic has been able to lean heavily upon her serve to keep her alive in every set she’s played.
She’s now played a tiebreak in four of her last five sets, and she managed to make it there in the second set against Mirra Andreeva after dropping a service game at 5-4 with the match on her racquet.
Bencic wasn’t broken until that point, and in all, she faced just four break points.
However, Swiatek is a different animal, standing as one of the greatest returners the tour has seen in 20 or so years.
None of the players in Bencic’s way through five rounds have been able to claim they’re anywhere near as good on return as Swiatek, and now she’ll try to hold onto her serve against a player breaking 43.1% of the time in the last calendar year, which ranks third in the world.
With Swiatek holding comfortably onto her own serve, the Polish star should set up a dramatic final and inch closer to a career Grand Slam.
Best best analysis
Swiatek’s serve will play a huge role in deciding this match.
She’s won 77% of points behind her first serve (11 points higher than Bencic), and while Swiatek's landed far fewer serves, she’s been broken in just 12% of her service games to this point.
Bencic will be in deep trouble on serve, and if she’s to fall behind, there are few playing as well with the lead right now as Swiatek.
The head-to-head here has been pretty straightforward as well, with Swiatek winning three of the four matches between the two. She should win convincingly, and the oddsmakers are offering us nice value on the total.
Swiatek vs Bencic odds
| (8) Iga Swiatek | Belinda Bencic | |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | Moneyline | +235 |
| -4.5 (-105) | Game spread | +4.5 (-130) |
| Over 21.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Swiatek vs Bencic
| Location | Centre Court, London, England |
| Date | Thursday, 7-10-2025 |
| Time | 10:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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