Novak Djokovic has won the last four Wimbledon titles. There appears to be no stopping him in a quest for a fifth.
Djokovic hasn’t had much competition on grass over the last four years, capturing each of those Wimbledons in relatively easy fashion. His primary foes were Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
This year, the former two enter with serious health concerns, while the latter two are no longer in the Wimbledon odds field. Young Carlos Alcaraz seems to be trending towards competing on grass, but it still may be too early to say he can step to the new king of grass.
Let’s break down the draw and offer our free betting picks for this year's Wimbledon men's tournament.
Wimbledon 2023 Men's odds
| Player | Odds to win Wimbledon |
|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | -160 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +350 |
| Jannik Sinner | +2,000 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +2,500 |
| Alexander Zverev | +3,500 |
| Sebastian Korda | +3,500 |
| Taylor Fritz | +4,000 |
| Nick Kyrgios | +4,000 |
| Holger Rune | +4,000 |
| Alex De Minaur | +6,500 |
| Andy Murray | +6,500 |
| Alexander Bublik | +8,000 |
| Andrey Rublev | +8,000 |
| Frances Tiafoe | +8,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of June 30, 2023.
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Wimbledon 2023 Men's favorites
Who's hot
Novak Djokovic (-175)
He’s yet to play a match since his French Open victory, but it really doesn’t matter. In winning that tournament, Djokovic proved once again that he’s the top dog in men’s tennis and enters this one with all the steam he would possibly require to win a fifth straight Wimbledon.
Carlos Alcaraz (+350)
Alcaraz had only played eight matches on grass prior to this season, and two of them were exhibitions. He seemed uncomfortable on the surface last year at Wimbledon in a pretty straightforward fourth-round defeat to Jannik Sinner, but this season is a different story.
Alcaraz entered Queen’s Club and won the 500-level event last week, taking out Alex De Minaur, Sebastian Korda, and Grigor Dimitrov along the way to prove his ability against experienced grass-courters. With the win at Queen’s, Alcaraz is officially red hot heading into Wimbledon.
Sebastian Korda (+3,000)
Korda may have fallen to Alcaraz at Queen’s Club, but his odds have plummeted in recent weeks after it appeared the American had found his form again on the grass.
With wins over Frances Tiafoe, Cam Norrie, and Dan Evans prior to the loss to Alcaraz, the man who made the fourth round here in his debut a couple of years ago is looking poised to make another run.
Who's not
Jannik Sinner (+1,700)
Taking a broad view here, we can see that Sinner is now 10-10 across all levels in his grass career. He went 3-2 in the lead-up to Wimbledon, toppling Alexander Bublik, Richard Gasquet, and Lorenzo Sonego in very difficult fashion. He also fell to Emil Ruusuvuori, and looks far away from having the game to take on one of the world’s best. He’s now lost four of his last eight matches dating back to May.
Daniil Medvedev (+2,500)
Medvedev should be able to play grass in theory, but he’s yet to look as dominant here as he is on a hardcourt. He can’t dig his feet in on this surface and grind out long rallies from the baseline, and he’s perhaps lost his way here in June with two losses in four matches on grass.
He fell to Roberto Bautista-Agut and Adrian Mannarino, who are two good grass players but two players a dominant player like Medvedev should be beating.
Nick Kyrgios (+4,000)
Last year’s finalist has played just one match all season after undergoing knee surgery in January and having his comeback delayed by a foot injury caused by a home burglary. That one match was a loss to Yibing Wu on grass a few weeks ago, where it appeared he could hardly move around the court. He hasn’t been seen since.
Wimbledon 2023 Men's sleepers
Cam Norrie (+8,500)
I don’t see one person talking about Norrie in the lead-up to Wimbledon. Sure, he’s fallen off a bit this year, but he’s still in the best quarter with just Medvedev, Korda and Tsitsipas to compete with.
The Brit, who made the semis here a year ago, should be considered the favorite to make the semis again if he’s able to defeat Korda in their projected third-round match. At this price, he may be a steal.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+11,000)
Laugh all you want, but at some point Auger-Aliassime is going to heat back up.
He was the hottest player in the world to end last season, and we know the youngster has other-worldly talent. He’s particularly devastating on grass, where he can lean on his huge serve and forehand combination. And while Djokovic does await him if he reaches the quarters, crazier things have happened.
Long shots to avoid
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+7,500)
The draw broke right for Tsitsipas, but that’s about the only good thing I can say right now.
The Greek looked lost against Alcaraz in the quarters of the French Open and since has gone 1-3 on the grass with some pretty jarring losses to Yannick Hanfmann and Richard Gasquet.
He’s exited Wimbledon in the first round in three of his five trips here and has never really figured out grass. Now, he’s got to deal with an awful run of form.
