The second Wimbledon Ladies semifinal has been set, and Marta Kostyuk is set to tangle with rising star Linda Noskova Thursday afternoon local time.
Kostyuk gave Noskova a clay court lesson in Madrid, but my Marta Kostyuk vs. Linda Noskova predictions and free betting picks expect Noskova to turn the tables and win this match as a +115 underdog.
Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Noskova moneyline (+115 at Kalshi)
- My best bet: Noskova moneyline (+115 at Kalshi)
Match analysis
Marta Kostyuk beat Linda Noskova on clay in Madrid earlier this year, but that head-to-head stat doesn’t mean much on grass.
On the dust, Kostyuk absolutely destroyed Noskova’s second serve, holding her to a terrible 22% win rate, but on London’s faster turf, Noskova's second-serve points won have shot up to 60.1% this season.
Noskova's big game is built for grass, where she averages 5.6 aces a match.
Since Kostyuk is giving away 4.25 double faults per match, Noskova's much-improved serve changes everything. Expect the Berlin champ to turn the tables and reach the Wimbledon final in three tough sets.
Best best analysis
Grab Linda Noskova on the moneyline at +115. The prediction markets are giving Noskova a 46.5% implied chance of winning, which completely ignores her grass-court advantage.
This match is a dead heat that should be priced right around -110, meaning her actual win probability is closer to 52.4%. That gives us a beautiful 5.9% value edge on the underdog, and one we should attack.
Especially when you consider how each player wins on the grass, Noskova boasts a career 1.09 Dominance Rating that has risen to 1.31 this season, whereas Kostyuk is 0.96 for her career and 1.19 this season.
Trust Noskova’s steady 60.1% second-serve success on turf to frustrate Kostyuk’s return game and cash a nice plus-money ticket at +100.
Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova odds
How to watch Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
| Location | Centre Court, All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, England |
| Date | Thursday, July 9, 2026 |
| Time | 9:40 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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