Prop projections are one of the easiest ways to save time and remove bias from your betting process. That's especially useful in the lead-up to Super Bowl 60, with an explosion of markets now available.
That's where we come in. Our Covers NFL player prop projections are a trusted resource designed to help bettors like yourself identify value quickly and efficiently.
Below, I’ll highlight my favorite +EV player props from each major Super Bowl market and will explain where and why the projections disagree with current prices.
Anytime touchdowns
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+155)
This is a strong price for a back who is handling roughly 90% of his team’s running back opportunities. The backfield belongs entirely to Rhamondre Stevenson, and this is the longest TD number he’s had since Week 16. He hasn’t found the end zone in the playoffs, but the weather has clearly played a role.
Stevenson scored six touchdowns over his final three games to close out the regular season.
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Receptions
Pick: Kenneth Walker III Under 2.5 receptions (+135)
This is a significant edge, as the projections strongly disagree with the market. When a gap this large shows up in a liquid market, it’s fair to be cautious, but our projections tool is betting on a run-heavy script and a slow-paced offense facing a defense opponents prefer to attack on the ground, allowing just 26.6 pass attempts per game.
George Holani also looked more than capable of handling the third-down passing role with Zach Charbonnet sidelined.
Passing touchdowns
Pick: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 passing TDs (-105)
The projections have Seattle at a 54.6% pass rate and highlight a run-first approach in the red zone. The Seahawks are the least pass-heavy offense in the red zone in football at 49.3%.
This prop market has moved from +110 to -105, indicating strength in the projection but still a slight edge with a fair price of -125.
Passing yards
Pick: Drake Maye Over 219.5 passing yards (-110)
Getting Drake Maye into a favorable passing game script with ideal throwing conditions is a major reason the projections prefer the Over more than the market. There has already been movement toward the Over, with sub-220 numbers largely disappearing.
Our projections tool also projects New England as the third-most pass-focused offense in this spot, and they’re facing a Seattle defense that is well known as a pass funnel.
Receiving yards
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)
Yardage totals are a little trickier as the total will change more than the pricing, but this fair yardage total should be around 50 yards. In saying that, this is a perfect box score letdown spot as bettors who go to look at hit rates will see he has cashed at a 30% rate over the last 10 games. However, the setting, game script, and matchup are projecting a bigger usage for Stefon Diggs and the weather and script have been a big reason lately for the lower usage.
Rushing yards
Pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 74.5 rushing yards (-108)
There is about 10 yards of wiggle room to the fair total. Walker has a great running script as a 4.5-point favorite and with just George Holani behind him on the depth chart, 82.7% of the carries are projected for Walker on a run-first offense.
The Seattle running back has 50 adjusted rushing yards per, which ranks in the 83rd percentile and ranks him as one of the best pure rushers in the league.
